MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, July 31, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 31, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

Runs should be hard to come by in the Bay Area on Wednesday when R.A Dickey and the Toronto Blue Jays (49-57, 21-29 away) pay a visit to Bartolo Colon and the Oakland Athletics (63-44, 34-17 home) in the third game of a three-game series from Coliseum in Oakland, CA at 3:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -114.

This is the rubber game of the series after the teams split the first two games, with the Athletics dominating the series opener 9-4 while accumulating 11 hits on Monday and the Blue Jays getting some revenge 5-0 on Tuesday as Mark Buehrle tossed seven scoreless innings. Those were the first two meetings of the season between these clubs despite this fairly late stage of the year.

The A’s still lead the American League West by five games over the second place Texas Rangers despite losing a game in the standings last night in what looks like a two-team race. The Blue Jays were actually the favorites to win the American League East prior to the season, but they instead are in last place and virtually out of the running at 14½ games behind the first place Tampa Bay Rays.

A surprising catalyst to Oakland’s surge to the top of the division has been Colon, who at the age of 40 is having perhaps his best Major League season at 14-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Colon is coming off of another fine outing vs. the Los Angeles Angels where he allowed a two-run home run in the first inning to Mike Trout and no more runs after that, allowing a total of seven hits in six innings for his 14th win.

No, we do not think Colon is as good as his record but we do think he will continue to pitch well at home as he has proven that he knows how to pitch to the spacious dimensions of this pitcher’s ballpark, going 6-1 with a 2.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and only nine walks in 74.1 innings in this stadium, as he has been willing to pitch to contact here.

Dickey on the other hand has been a major disappointment returning to the American League after winning the National League Cy Young Award with the New York Mets last season, as he is now 8-11 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP after another bad outing vs. the Houston Astros on Friday where he allowed five runs on seven hits in six innings.

However, the Athletics has precisely the young aggressive offense that Dickey’s knuckleball works best against, and Oakland is only batting .225 here at home vs. righties this season. That was the case the only time Dickey faced the A’s while with the Mets, as he allowed one run on only three hits in eight innings with nine strikeouts.

Dickey has had several good outings like that this season in a very inconsistent year, and the A’s seem likely candidates to have another one against to help ensure an ‘under’ Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Blue Jays, Athletics ‘under’ 7½ (-114)

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