MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, July 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

An underrated southpaw, a pitcher that has excelled at home and a pitcher’s ballpark should all combine to produce a fairly low scoring game Wednesday night when Jorge De La Rosa and the Colorado Rockies (43-48, 17-27 away) pay a visit to Andrew Cashner and the San Diego Padres (41-50, 26-19 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 10:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -117.

These teams have exchanged low scoring wins in the first two games of this series, with the Padres losing their 10th straight game in the series opener 4-2 on Monday but then snapping that losing streak with a 2-1 win here last night. As bad as the Padres have been playing, they are only 6½ games behind the first place Arizona Diamondbacks despite being in a virtual tie for last place in the National League West with the San Francisco Giants.

The Rockies meanwhile remain in third place 4½ games out in a division where Arizona is the only team that is over .500, and they have their probable ace on the mound tonight in De La Rosa, who remains underrated on a national level but has actually been one of the better pitchers in the National League.

Remember that De La Rosa pitches half of his games in the altitude of Colorado, and yet he is 8-5 with a spiffy 3.19 ERA and he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts! The irony there is that the one time during this stretch that he allowed more than three runs, it occurred vs. these Padres back in Denver on June 7th when he surrendered four runs on a hearty 11 hits in just five innings.

Do not expect a repeat performance at sea level though as De La Rose has allowed a grand total of three runs in 19 innings over his last three starts at spacious Petco Park, where the Padres are batting just .232 vs. left-handed pitchers this season while averaging only 3.73 runs per nine innings against them.

The Padres have had trouble scoring regardless of the venue as of late as they are averaging a pathetic 2.60 runs per game in their last 10 games overall, an average not helped by scoring four runs in the first two games of this series. At least they have a pitcher capable of keeping them in this game tonight though, as Cashner has become rather adept at pitching to the dimensions of this ballpark.

Cashner has fairly good overall numbers as he is 5-4 while pitching for a team that is nine games under .500 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but he has taken things to another level in his six starts at Petco, going 4-1 with an excellent 2.38 ERA and a miniscule 0.99 WHIP over 45.1 innings with a terrific ratio of 28 strikeouts against only eight walks.

Cashner also tossed a Quality Start in his first start vs. the Rockies this season, and that was in the altitude of Denver where he was charged with three runs on seven hits in seven innings. He is now facing a slumping Colorado offense that is batting a dreadful .193 over the last 10 games while averaging a very Padres-like 2.80 runs in those contests.

Therefore look for both offenses to continue to struggle in an ‘under’ on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Rockies, Padres ‘under’ 7 (-117)

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