MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, July 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

There is potential for a nice pitching duel in the Lone Star State Wednesday when Roberto Hernandez and the Tampa Bay Rays (45-39, 20-21 away) pay a visit to Bud Norris and the Houston Astros (30-54, 27-14 home) in the third game of a four-game series from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -106.

The Rays are playing good baseball right not having won seven of their last nine games, and they welcomed back ace David Price here in Houston last night as he tossed seven scoreless innings and allowed only three hits in an 8-0 Tampa Bay whitewashing. The Rays are up to third place in the American League East, one-half game ahead of the New York Yankees and 5½ games behind the first place Boston Red Sox.

The Astros meanwhile now own the worst record in the entire Major Leagues at 30-54, and after playing some better baseball during the month of June, they have now reverted back to being the Astros again as they have lost five straight games and seven of their last eight.

Houston has scored a grand total of five runs during the five-game losing streak including getting shut out by the Rays each of the last two nights, but they do have a pitcher capable of keeping them in the game going tonight. Norris was extremely unlucky vs. the Los Angeles Angels last time out as he took the loss without allowing an earned run, surrendering just four hits in seven innings but being done in by his defense while allowing one unearned run.

There have been some trade rumors circulating regarding Norris over the last week or so, which is understandable for a guy that has a 3.35 ERA for the season and has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts and only four runs in the other one, and yet is just 5-7 while pitching or a team that is going nowhere. It is not surprising that the ‘under’ is 12-5 in all the games that Norris has started this season.

Now, Hernandez is having a disappointing year for Tampa Bay at 4-9 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but the good news is that he does have a nice ratio of 74 strikeouts vs. 21 walks and he is facing a Houston team that has struck out more than any other team in the Major Leagues this season, at a distressing rate of 9.3 strikeouts per game!

Every now and then, Hernandez shows a glimpse of being the pitcher he was when he went 19-8 for the Cleveland Indians in 2007 when he was known as Fausto Carmona, and he gave the Rays eight solid innings vs. what had been a hot Toronto Blue Jays team in his last start, allowing only three runs and six hits.

Finally Hernandez will be helped by facing a Houston lineup that is batting a poor .214 vs. right-handed pitchers here at home while averaging only 3.09 runs per nine innings against them, so go ‘under’ in Houston on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Rays, Astros ‘under’ 8 (-106)

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