MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, June 19, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 19, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

One team’s ace and another team’s hot pitcher should result in a low scoring affair on Wednesday night when Luis Mendoza and the Kansas City Royals (34-35, 17-19 away) pay a visit to Justin Masterson and the Cleveland Indians (35-35, 21-14 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

These teams have gone ‘under’ in the first two games of this series with the Royals winning 2-1 on Tuesday and the Indians coming back to win 4-3 last night thanks to a three-run eighth inning. Thus, these teams remain one-half game apart in the American League Central, with Cleveland in second place 4½ games behind the division leading Detroit Tigers and Kansas City in third place five games back.

The Indians actually led the division for a while before going on a bit of a tailspin, but they have now gone 5-2 in their last seven games to get back to the .500 mark. A major key to this little resurgence has been pitching as the Cleveland starters have a collective 3.71 ERA over the past 10 games and the bullpen has also excelled during that time, putting up a 2.05 ERA while yielding a .216 batting average.

Masterson is now the Cleveland ace, and he bounced back from a pair of sub-par outings vs. the Yankees and Tigers to toss a gem vs. the Washington Nationals in his last start, allowing one run and a mere two hits with 10 strikeouts in seven innings. That leaves him at 8-5 with a nice 3.52 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while yielding a .216 batting average, and he now has 102 strikeouts in 102.1 innings against just 41 walks.

Granted Masterson was rocked by the Royals for seven earned runs on nine hits in Kansas City the first time he faced them this season, but he now gets a chance for some revenge at home vs. a Royals’ offense that is hitting only .237 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games. Masterson has sparkled at home this year going 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Mendoza is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA overall, but his ERA has been falling steadily as of late as he has impressively allowed three earned runs or less in eight consecutive starts. He has been especially solid in his last two outings, first tossing seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits vs. the Houston Astros and then allowing two runs on seven hits in six innings while beating the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start on Friday.

Granted those are not the greatest offenses in the world, but he now facing another struggling offense as the Indian are batting .217 vs. right-handers over their last 10 games, and he has faced some much stronger offense while posting an excellent 2.93 ERA over those last eight starts. If he is in need of relief, the Kansas City bullpen now leads the Major Leagues with a 2.77 ERA.

The first two games of this series have brought the ‘under’ to 8-1 in the last nine Cleveland games overall, and look for that pattern to continue for at least one more game on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Royals, Indians ‘under’ 8 (-113)

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