MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, June 5, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 5, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.

Look for a higher scoring game than the fairly low total suggests Wednesday night when Dillon Gee and the New York Mets (22-33, 10-16 away) pay a visit to Dan Haren and the Washington Nationals (29-29, 16-11 home) in the middle game of a three-game series from Nationals Park in Washington, DC at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.

The Nationals nipped the Mets 3-2 in a low scoring affair in the series opener on Tuesday, rallying for two runs in the ninth inning off of Mets’ closer Bobby Parnell as New York wasted seven strong innings from Jeremy Hefner. Steve Lombardozzi hit the game winning sacrifice fly after Adam LaRoche had tied the game earlier in the inning with an RBI single.

We expect a different type of game tonight however as while both offenses have been struggling for much of the year, so have tonight’s two starting pitchers that have both made lesser offenses than these look like Murderer’s Row at times this season.

Haren used to be one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball, but he seemed to have simply lost his command last year when he went 12-13 with a 4.33 ERA while pitching for the Los Angeles Angels and he seems to have taken another step further back this year in his first season with the Nationals. Haren is 4-6 with a 5.09 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.

Now granted, Haren continues to pound the strike zone as he still had an incredible ratio of 51 strikeouts against nine walks. However, his strikes are now getting hit as he has lost both some velocity and some movement. This is a pitcher accustomed to striking out nearly one batter per inning, yet he has needed 63.2 innings to record those 51 strikeouts and he is generously yielding a .291 batting average while ranking third in the National League in home runs allowed with 12.

Even when he was at his best, Haren was only mediocre vs. the Mets going 1-1 with a 4.89 ERA in seven career games against them with six of those being starts, and New York reached him for six earned runs on seven hits in only four innings the last time he faced them.

The Mets starter Gee won 13 games as a rookie in 2011 but he won only won a total of nine games since then. Granted, he Gee may be coming off of the game of his life where he struck out 12 New York Yankees without walking a batter in 7.1 innings while allowing one run and four hits, but he is likely to “bounce” off of that effort as he is still just 3-6 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.58 WHIP with the league hitting a robust .309 against him.

Like Haren, Gee has been prone to giving up the long ball, allowing nine of them in 11 starts covering 57 innings, and prior to his unexpected masterpiece against the Yankees he had allowed 14 runs on 25 hits in just 14 innings over his previous three starts. Those kinds of outings have been more frequent this year for Gee, as there was talk of removing him from the starting rotation before his last start.

Look for both of the starters to struggle enough for this contest to sneak ‘over’ this low posted total on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Mets, Nationals ‘over’ 7½ (-110)

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