MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, July 8, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Expect a fairly high scoring game between two mediocre starting pitchers Tuesday night when southpaw John Danks and the Chicago White Sox (43-47, 19-26 away) pay a visit to right-hander Brandon Workman and the Boston Red Sox (39-50, 21-25 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 7:10 ET in a game available on NESN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 9½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at +100.

The White Sox are actually exceeding preseason expectations so far being just four games under .500 after winning the series opener here in Beantown last night 4-0 behind Scott Carroll and two relievers, and while they are in fourth place in the American League Central they are only 7½ games behind the first place Detroit Tigers. Remember that Chicago scored the fewest runs in the AL last year at 3.69 per game, but the ChiSox have raised that to 4.27 in 2014.

The defending World Champion Red Sox have been huge disappointments at 11 games under .500, and they are now back in the American League East basement after being expected by many to compete for the division title. Boston is rather lucky to be only 10 games behind the first place Baltimore Orioles, and even more disconcerting has been the Red Sox performance at home as they are just 21-25 at Fenway Park after losing 28 games here all year last season.

Danks remains consistent if nothing else as he is 7-6 this season with a 4.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP that are both basically on par with his career numbers, which now have him with a 4.19 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. However, Danks has pitched considerably better at home in Chicago, which does not bode well for him here as he is just 3-4 with a bloated 5.89 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in eight road starts covering 47.1 innings.

Yes he tossed a gem vs. the Red Sox the first time he faced them this year allowing one run on just three hits in six innings, but again that start came in the comforts of home. Danks’s last start at Fenway Park came last season and he was roughed up for six runs on 11 hits in five innings.

Granted the Boston offense has not nearly been as potent as usual, but the best split for the Red Sox has been vs. left-handed pitchers at home as they are batting .255 in this circumstance, and they have been coming on especially well vs. southpaws lately hitting a hearty .292 against them over the last 10 games.

The Boston starter Workman has been bouncing back and forth between the starting rotation and the bullpen since debuting in the Major Leagues last year, and frankly the results have not been that great in either spot. Sure he went 6-3 last year, but that was with a 4.97 ERA. He is currently 1-2 this season with just a slightly better but still unspectacular 4.17 ERA.

Even the light-hitting Cubs reached Workman for six earned runs on five hits plus three walks in just four innings in his last start, and he now must deal with the other Chicago team that has produced more runs vs. right-handed pitchers this season (4.44 per game) than its has vs. southpaws (3.83).

Furthermore, while the Boston bullpen is fifth in the American League with a 3.31 ERA, that unit is in a collective slump right now with a hefty 6.14 ERA the last 10 games.

Therefore, expect the scoreboard operator to be kept rather busy on Fenway Park on Tuesday.

MLB Pick: White Sox, Red Sox ‘over’ 9½ (+100)