MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 24, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Runs could be hard to come by in the Bay Area Tuesday night when Jesse Hahn and the San Diego Padres (33-44, 14-23 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Tim Hudson and the San Francisco Giants (45-31, 23-16 home) in the second game of a three-game series from AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 10:15 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

The Giants had the best record in all of baseball early last week but they have hit a major slide that has seen them lose seven of their last nine game after dropping in series opener to the Padres 6-0 here last night. San Francisco still leads the second place Los Angeles Dodgers by four games in the National League West however, and the Giants trail the upstart Milwaukee Brewers by one game for the best record in the National League.

It has been a tumultuous week for the Padres, beginning with the tragic passing of Tony Gwynn last week followed by the firing of general manager Josh Byrnes Sunday and the placement of ace starter Andrew Cashner on the Disabled List Monday. There have been trade rumors surrounding Cashner, and those rumors intensified when he was initially scratched from his start Monday, but all that died down when it turned out he has legitimate shoulder soreness.

The Pads somehow got off the deck with that shutout win on Monday, giving them a two-game lead over the last place Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West while in fourth place and trying to avoid the cellar. However, San Diego does not figure to have as much offensive success tonight vs. Hudson as he looks to continue his fine season that has him at 7-3 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP and a great ratio of 60 strikeouts vs. 14 walks in 94 innings.

Hudson has never been a big strikeout guy, but he has always had great control and he gets away with pitching to contact because he is sixth among qualifying Major League pitchers with his 56.6 percent groundball rate. Granted Hudson comes off of his worst outing of the season where he was roughed up for seven earned run on 12 hits in just 4.2 innings by the White Sox in Chicago, but do not look for a duplication of that effort here.

Hudson has faced the Padres twice this year and allowed exactly two runs on each occasion, allowing a total of four runs and 13 hits in 15.2 innings with 10 strikeouts and not a single walk.

With all of that being said, the Giants may also have difficulties generating offense in their first ever look at the young Hahn. The right-hander was mediocre in his first Major League start allowing four runs on six hits in 3.2 innings, but with those butterflies out of the way Hahn has excelled while not allowing an earned run in 13 innings over his two starts since then, allowing only six hits with 14 strikeouts over those two outings!

Another similar outing by Hahn would give the Padres a chance at a second upset win in as many nights while also helping keep this game ‘under’ the total, as the San Diego bullpen continues to be a strength while ranking second in the Major Leagues with a 2.50 pen ERA.

Therefore, go ‘under’ this total in San Francisco on Tuesday.

MLB Pick: Padres, Giants ‘under’ 7 (-113)