MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 17, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 17, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Do not be surprised by a fairly low scoring game in the desert Tuesday night when right-hander Kyle Lohse and the Milwaukee Brewers (42-29, 22-14 away) pay a visit to southpaw Wade Miley and the Arizona Diamondbacks (30-43, 12-25 home) at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ at 9:40 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +110.

The Brewers have been one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball this year as in a National League Central that became the first division ever to end three teams to the MLB Playoffs last season in the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds, it is Milwaukee that currently leads the division over all of those teams, holding a 3½-game lead over the second place Cardinals after winning the series opener 8-3 here last night.

The Diamondbacks have also been a surprise, but of the negative variety as few prognosticators expected Arizona to have the worst record in the National League at this stage of the season, which they do at a disturbing 30-43. They did miss a chance to get out of the National League West basement with the loss last night however, as the D-Backs trail the fourth place San Diego Padres by just one-half game.

Lohse has been a major reason for Milwaukee’s surprising success as he is 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and he comes off of another sparkling outing vs. the New York Mets on Thursday where he allowed just one unearned run in eight innings on four hits. That marked the second time in three starts that Lohse went at least eight innings without allowing an earned run as he tossed a Complete Game three-hit shutout at the Chicago Cubs on June 1st.

Lohse has a very good ratio of 69 strikeouts vs. 14 walks in 96 innings while yielding a .231 opponents’ batting average, and his 3.53 FIP suggests that he should be able to maintain his current fine level. Then again, that should come as no surprise for a pitcher that has not posted an ERA higher than 3.39 over the last four years.

Just about the biggest weakness for the Brewers this season though has been their performance vs. left-handed pitchers, as they are batting just .234 against them overall opposed to .258 vs. right-handers, and even worse Milwaukee is batting .222 vs. southpaws on the road while averaging only 3.89 runs per nine innings against them.

That benefits the southpaw Miley, who has been unable to match his rookie season of 2012 when he won 16 games while posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, as he slipped to 10-10 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.32 WHIP last year and has fallen back even more this year going 3-6 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.29 WHIP so far.

However, Miley does have 8.17 strikeouts per nine innings with 85 in 93.2 innings vs. 28 walks, and he has a good groundball rate for a strikeout pitcher of 46.9 percent, so there is certainly room for positive regression. And facing a Milwaukee lineup that struggles vs. lefties should help his cause quite a bit.

Miley was two for two in Quality Starts vs. Milwaukee last season, going 2-0 while allowing four runs in 14 innings with a scintillating ratio of 12 strikeouts vs. one walk.

Thus, expect a relatively low scoring game in Arizona on Tuesday.

MLB Pick: Brewers, Diamondbacks ‘under’ 8½ (+110)

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