MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 10, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

The final total could reach double-digits north of the border Tuesday night when right-hander Kevin Correia and the Minnesota Twins (29-33, 14-16 away) pay a visit to southpaw J.A. Happ (39-26, 20-15 home) at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON Canada at 7:07 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 9½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -125.

The Blue Jays continue to lead the American League East by 5½ games over the second place Baltimore Orioles, and Toronto is starting to become an intriguing option at nice odds on both World Series and AL Pennant Futures after taking the series opener 5-4 here on Monday, winning on a walk-off single by Kevin Pillar in the bottom of the ninth after Minnesota had rallied to tie the game with two runs in their final at-bat.

Not much was expected of the Twins entering this season after finishing 30 games below .500 at 66-96 last year, and they are indeed in last place in the AL Central. However, they are actually hanging in fairly well at just five games behind the first place Detroit Tigers while four games under .500, and they even made a surprising move over the weekend by signing coveted free agent Kendrys Morales, who went 1-for-3 with a walk in his Minnesota debut Monday.

While the Blue Jays have been playing well overall, their starter tonight Happ has been rather erratic while alternating Quality Starts and non-quality outings over his last six starts, and the bad news there is that he would be in line for a clunker tonight if that continues. Worse news is that he was not really that great while just qualifying for a Quality Start his last time out Thursday vs. the Tigers, allowing three earned runs on seven hits plus two walks in 6.1 innings.

Happ also has just two strikeouts in that effort, which continues to point to his nondescript ratio this season of 35 strikeouts vs. a disturbing 21 walks in 43.2 innings. Happ is extremely fortunate to be 5-2 given his 4.12 ERA and poor 1.53 WHIP, and when you add in his seven home runs allowed in seven starts, he grades out to a 5.00 FIP. It is a good thing Happ has not pitched enough innings to get ranked, as only six qualified starters have a higher FIP right now.

Granted the Twins have not hit southpaws well this season batting only .235 against them overall, although they have raised that average vs. left-handers to .258 over the last 10 games. And Happ cannot really count on much help from a Toronto bullpen that is 28th in the majors with a 4.55 pen ERA after nearly blowing the game last night and that is the one Achilles Heel that may prevent the Blue Jays from making the playoffs or advancing far if they do.

The Twins are not the only team that figure to score their share of runs tonight however, especially considering that Toronto is second in the majors in scoring at 4.91 runs per game, fifth in batting average at .262, second in team OPS at .778 and the Blue Jays lead the world in home runs with 91 in 65 games.

Minnesota’s Correia has had enough problems vs. just average offenses, so he could have his work cut out for him here. The 33-year-old veteran is on the tail end of his career as he currently sits at 2-7 with a bloated 6.11 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and a hideous .321 batting average allowed after he was touched up for five earned runs on 10 hits while laboring through 98 pitches in just five innings vs. the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.

Correia usually pitches to contact with just 37 strikeouts and 14 walks in 66.1 innings, which is not a good recipe for a relatively soft tosser without a spectacular groundball rate (41.5 percent), and as you might expect eight of his pitches have left the yard. He has started vs. the Blue Jays four times in his career, all since 2010, and has yet to record a Quality Start while posting a whopping 6.48 ERA and 1.48 WHIP while allowing Toronto batters to hit .307 against him.

And the Minnesota bullpen has slumped to a collective 4.08 ERA and an ugly 1.50 WHIP over the last 10 contests.

With all of this in mind, let us go ‘over’ the total as these teams should combine to reach double-digits in Canada on Tuesday.

[gameodds]3/286470/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Twins, Blue Jays ‘over’ 9½ (-125)