MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 3, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 3, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

After going ‘under’ in the opening game of this series, there could be more of the same Tuesday night when right-hander Jake Peavy and the Boston Red Sox (27-30, 12-13 away) again pay a visit to young southpaw T.J. House and the Cleveland Indians (28-30, 19-11 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH at 7:05 ET in a game televised regionally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

We correctly called the ‘under’ as our MLB Total Value Play of the Day Monday as Cleveland won 3-2, snapping Boston’s seven-game winning streak. That marked the sixth straight ‘under’ recorded by the Red Sox, while the ‘under’ is also now 6-2 in the last eight Cleveland games overall.

Thus the Red Sox has some momentum stopped as that seven-game winning streak came immediately after snapping a 10-game losing streak! The end result is that the defending World Champions are in fourth place in the American League East, 6½ games behind the division leading Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile the win last night lifted the Indians to third place in the American League Central, 5½ games behind the first place Detroit Tigers.

The young southpaw House was well-regarded by Cleveland’s upper management when he was recalled to start May 23rd vs. the Baltimore Orioles, although he was promptly hit hard in his Major League debut allowing five earned runs on 11 hits in six innings. However, House showed why the Indians are high on him in his second start vs. the Chicago White Sox last Wednesday, allowing just one run and five hits with eight strikeouts vs. one walk in 6.1 innings.

House could be auditioning here to remain in the Indians’ rotation on a long-term basis, although the good news is that he could be in the majors the rest of the year as the whispers are that Cleveland would more likely put House in the bullpen than send him back to the minors. Still, there is no reason why he cannot remain in the rotation if he continues to pitch like he did last week.

And he very well could, not only because the Red Sox are batting a surprisingly low .242 as a team this season, but also because Boston has slumped to .236 vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games. And when and if House is in need of relief, the Cleveland bullpen is ranked fourth in the American League with a 3.19 ERA.

Now admittedly, Peavy is no longer the pitcher he was when he won the Cy Young Award for the San Diego Padres way back in 2007, as he ERA was over 4.00 for the White Sox and Red Sox combined last year and currently stands at 4.50 this year. However, Peavy was dominant the last time he faced the Indians, allowing only one run on a solo homer and five hits with 11 strikeouts and not a single walk in seven innings.

That marked the fifth Quality Start for Peavy in his last six starts vs. Cleveland, and they were not cheapies as he only allowed three runs once in those Quality Starts, and that was in eight innings. Furthermore, Peavy has the excellent support of a Boston bullpen that leads the American League with a 2.72 pen ERA.

Thus, not unlike last night, look for the pitching to dominate again in yet another ‘under’ in Cleveland on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Red Sox, Indians ‘under’ 8½ (-113)

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