MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 27, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, May. 27, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

There could be a higher scoring game than expected Tuesday night in a game between two teams that are not exactly known for potent offense when Collin McHugh and the Houston Astros (20-32, 10-17 away) pay a visit to Jeremy Guthrie and the Kansas City Royals (24-26, 13-12 home) at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -113.

The Astros are in their usual position of owning the worst record in baseball, which unfortunately they have become accustomed to in recent seasons. The good news though is that they are running ahead of their pace of recent years at 20-32 at this point of the season as they have won eight of their last 13 games including three in a row after taking the series opener 9-2 here last night.

The Royals come off of they best season in a long time when they finished 86-76 last season and were in wild card contention until the latter weeks of the season, but they have been mostly inconsistent this season resulting in a 24-26 overall mark and they have now lost three of their last four contests.

Outside of ace James Shields, it has been a bit of a struggle for the rest of the Kansas City starters including tonight’s starter Guthrie. Then again, those of you that have followed us in the past should not be surprised as Guthrie topped our list of the most overrated pitchers in baseball early this year.

Yes, Guthrie comes off of possibly his best start of the year as he held the Chicago White Sox to one run on three hits in seven innings last Wednesday, but that could actually be more of a reason to expect a “bounce” tonight. The reason we were so low on Guthrie entering the year was because he comes off of a season where he set a career high in wins with 15 despite owning the worst FIP in the Major League among qualifying pitchers at 4.79 last year.

Well, he is basically at it again as he is currently fourth from the bottom in FIP at an ugly 5.41, only this time his mainstream stats are closer to being in line with that figure as he is just 2-3 with a 4.39 ERA and a mere 29 strikeouts vs. 14 walks in 65.2 innings. Note that his ERA is still over a run better than his FIP, which still leaves more room for regression there.

And while he is facing a Houston offense that is still batting just .236 overall, that average has actually be rising steadily as of late as the Astros are batting .263 while averaging a quite good 4.81 runs per nine innings over the last 10 games, including batting .267 and averaging a potent 5.10 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitchers like Guthrie during this time.

McHugh has seemingly alternated good starts and bad starts for the Astros, and if that pattern holds he would be in line for a bad one today after holding the Los Angeles Angels to two runs on four hits in seven innings in an unlucky 2-1 loss on Wednesday. The end result of that is a 2-3 record in six starts, although McHugh does have a good 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

Do not expect him to maintain those numbers for much longer though as McHugh never demonstrated this kind of ability while pitching for the New York Mets and Colorado Rockies prior to this season and he is extremely unlikely maintain his currently unrealistic strikeout rate of 9.71 per nine innings, as his best career strikeout rate until now was 7.17 with the Mets in 2012, and that rate sat at a low 3.81 last season for New York and Colorado combined.

And like Houston, the Kansas City offense is also improving following a terrible start. The Royals are also averaging about a full run more per nine innings this season vs. right-handed pitches (4.15) than they are vs. southpaws (3.16).

Thus, look for a somewhat high scoring game relative to this posted total in Kansas City on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Astros, Royals ‘over’ 8 (-113)

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