MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, April 15, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 15, 2014 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

After a wild night where 10 home runs were hit over the first six innings of a suspended game, look for a return to normalcy in the Queen City Tuesday night when Gerrit Cole and the Pittsburgh Pirates (6-6, 2-4 away) pay a visit to Mike Leake and the Cincinnati Reds (4-8, 2-4 home) at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET in a game televised regionally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -123.

This game will begin after the completion of Monday’s suspended game, which is being picked up in the top of the seventh inning with the score 7-7 and whose sportsbook ruling is still a popular topic for discussion on SBR Forum! While the 10 home runs were an aberration, a high scoring game could have been predicted with the pitching matchup on Monday, and that does not appear to be the case with tonight’s matchup.

Also, the simultaneous explosion for both offenses does not expect to continue when you consider that the Pirates still have a team batting average of .230 this season while the Reds are not really much better at .236.

Cole has continued his fine pitching in his sophomore season as he is two for two in Quality Starts so far while going 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and best of all 13 strikeouts vs. four walks in 13 innings. Remember that Cole was the overall number one draft pick of the MLB Draft in 2011, and he was in the Major Leagues less than two years later while helping pitch the Pirates to their first playoff appearance in 21 years.

Cole went 10-7 his rookie year with a 3.22 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while showing great command for someone so young with 100 strikeouts vs. just 28 walks in 117.1 innings. He then continued that fine display in the playoffs while making two starts vs. the St. Louis Cardinals and allowing exactly two runs on each occasion.

This will be Cole’s first ever appearance vs. Cincinnati, which seems like a tall order for a Reds’ offense that had been struggling all year until last night.

Leake did not enter the majors with the same heaping praise that Cole did, but he has continually improved and comes off of his best season as he went 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.27 WHIP last year. Leake comes off of a masterpiece vs. the St. Louis Cardinals last Wednesday where he tossed eight scoreless innings while allowing four hits and walking only one.

Leake pitched fairly well in his four starts vs. the Pirates last season especially in his two starts against them here in Cincinnati, over which he allowed a total of four runs in 12.2 innings with eight strikeouts vs. three walks. Leake is 5-3 lifetime vs. Pittsburgh with a good 3.22 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

Add the bad offensive numbers for these teams prior to last night to the two good pitchers, and expect a different type of game than the one that began on Monday with this one staying ‘under’ in Cincinnati on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Pirates, Reds ‘under’ 7½ (-123)

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