MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, October 15, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

There could be a pitchers duel in Michigan late Tuesday afternoon when John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox pay a visit to Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers in Game 3 of the ALCS from Comerica Park in Detroit, NI at 4:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +104.

On the one hand, the Tigers blew a chance to take a stranglehold of this series when they blew a 5-1 lead in the eight inning after seven innings of two-hit ball from probable Cy Young winner Max Scherzer in Game 2 Sunday, eventually losing 6-5. The Achilles Heel of the Detroit team, the bullpen, reared its ugly head as David Ortiz tied the game for Boston with a grand slam in the eight before Jarrod Saltalamacchia won it in the ninth.

On the flip side, coming into this ALCS, the Tigers probably would have been satisfied with taking one of the first two games in Boston before coming home to Detroit, and they did do that thanks to their near no-hitter in a 1-0 win in Game 1. They should still be fairly confident despite the Game 2 blow-up with their Game 3 starter Verlander re-discovering his own Cy Young form as of late.

Verlander had an off season by his standards, finishing 13-12 with a 3.46 ERA, but he ended the regular season with two scoreless outings and then had two more scoreless efforts in the ALDS vs. the Oakland Athletics including the deciding Game 5 in Oakland! Add that all up and Verlander has tossed 27 scoreless innings over his last four starts while allowing just 15 hits with 43 strikeouts vs. five walks, striking out at least 10 in all four starts!

Granted he did not pitch particularly well in his only start vs. the Red Sox this year here in Detroit back in June, allowing four earned runs on seven hits in five innings, but we do not think you can compare the Verlander of over three months ago with the vintage Verlander we are seeing with the season on the line, so we expect him to maintain his raging current form and also to work deep into this game to help nullify the effect of the bullpen.

With that being said, it is still not a given that another great performance by Verlander would guarantee a Tiger victory because Lackey is much better than a pitcher that went 11-13 during the season and that allowed four runs while beating the ace of the Tampa Bay Rays, David Price, in Game 2 of the ALDS.

You see, while the Red Sox were one of the better hitting teams in the American League, they did not support Lackey well for whatever reason as he finished the regular season with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP with a terrific ratio of 161 strikeouts vs. 40 walks, which obviously does not sound like the resume of an 11-13 pitcher.

Furthermore Lackey faced the potent Tiger lineup twice this season and we went a perfect two for two in Quality Starts allowing a grand total of five runs in 14.1 innings with 10 strikeouts vs. two walks, so we like his chances of keeping this a low scoring game through the late innings.

Thus, go ‘under’ the total in Game 3 of the ALCS from Motown on Tuesday.

[gameodds]3/247269/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Red Sox, Tigers ‘under’ 7 (+104)