MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, September 17, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 17, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

There could be a surprising pitching duel despite the lofty ERA for each of the starting pitchers Tuesday night when rookie Brian Flynn and the Miami Marlins (55-95, 24-51 away) pay a visit to veteran Roy Halladay and the Philadelphia Phillies (70-80, 42-34 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA at 7:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -109.

Although it is far too late to be meaningful, the Phillies have actually been playing better for new manager Ryne Sandberg during the month of September and they are now 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. That has Philadelphia in third place in the National League East, but still at 10 games below .500 and 19½ games behind the first place Atlanta Braves.

The Marlins meanwhile have the worst record in the National League and with All-Star pitcher Jose Fernandez now shut down for the season, there is very little to look forward to over the next couple of weeks. The Marlins latest skid has them at 2-9 over the last 11 games.

Halladay may be one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last decade or so, but this has been a lost year for him at 3-4 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Keep in mind however that you really cannot take his early season numbers at face value as he was undoubtedly pitching with a bad rotator cuff for longer than he let on until finally having surgery to repair the tear in May.

He now gets a chance at revenge after allowing nine runs in 2.1 innings to Miami in his very last start before getting disabled on May 5th. He was then on the Disabled List until coming back on August 25th vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he looked very good in his first start in over three months allowing two runs on four hits in six innings. Halladay has now alternated good and bad starts in his first four starts back, which would put him in line for a good one here.

He certainly seems to be in a good position to continue that pattern and to get some measure of revenge, as besides having the worst offense in the Major Leagues all season, the Marlins are currently batting a disgusting .182 vs. right-handed pitchers and averaging a woeful 1.67 runs per nine innings against them over the last 10 games!

Now we totally get that Flynn has not looked good in his first two Major League starts, but he has a chance to improve in his first start ever vs. the Phillies, as they are batting .232 vs. southpaws over the entire season. Also, should Flynn be in need of a quick hook, the Miami bullpen has been great as of late with a collective 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last 10 games.

In fact, even the Philadelphia bullpen has improved a great deal with a 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP the last 10 games, so go ‘under’ in the City of Brotherly Love on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Marlins, Phillies ‘under’ 7½ (-109)

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