MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, September 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 10, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Look for a relatively low scoring affair in a battle of southpaws in the Lone Star State Tuesday when Francisco Liriano and the Pittsburgh Pirates (82-61, 37-36 away) pay a visit to Martin Perez and the Texas Rangers (81-62, 39-30 home) in the second game of a three-game interleague series from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -102.

The Pirates took the series opener 1-0 on Monday with young Gerrit Cole striking out nine batters and allowing just three hits in seven innings while out-dueling Texas ace Yu Darvish. That loss by the suddenly slumping Rangers, who are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, dropped them two games behind the Oakland Athletics in the American League West, although Texas does have a four-game cushion in the wild card race.

The Pirates pulled to within one game of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central and it is virtually a certainty that they will end a playoff drought of over 20 years as they have an eight-game bulge for a wild card spot. Still, Pittsburgh is not exactly full of momentum right now either as Monday’s win snapped a four game losing streak and the offense continued to flounder as the Bucs have scored a grand total of three runs in the last three games.

Liriano has probably been the best Pittsburgh starting pitcher over the course of the entire year as he is 15-7 with a very nice 2.98 ERA and 139 strikeouts in 136 innings vs. 53 walks. Now, the bad news is that Liriano has not been nearly as consistent lately as he was earlier in the year. The good news though is that he has been “consistently inconsistent” in that he has yet to really have two bad outings in a row and he comes off an awful start in Milwaukee.

Liriano was lit up for seven earned runs in three innings by the Brewers. That means that over his last six starts, Liriano allowed 21 earned runs in 9.1 innings over three of those outings and he allowed one run in 24 innings over the other three! As we mentioned, none of the horrendous outings came in consecutive starts and he allowed two runs or less in each of his last three starts vs. the Rangers while he was in the American League, so we like his chances to bounce back.

However, we also expect Perez to maintain his form for Texas. Perez has six Quality Starts in his last seven outings and he tossed a gem last time out in the only game the Rangers won in a big series in Oakland allowing just one run in seven innings. The Rangers have been high on the youngster for several years and he has shown why by going 9-3 with a 3.41 ERA in 15 starts this season.

The lefty should be extra tough for the Pirates to hit with this being the first time he has ever faced them, and he is taking on a Pittsburgh lineup that is batting only .231 vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games.

Perez also has the support of a hot Texas bullpen that owns a 2.54 ERA over the last 10 games, so much like last night, runs should be at a premium in a probable ‘under’ in Arlington Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Pirates, Rangers ‘under’ 8 (-102)

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