MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, September 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 3, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

The starting pitchers figure to dominate the action on national television Tuesday night when Cy Young favorite Max Scherzer and the Detroit Tigers (81-57, 37-30 away) pay a visit to Comeback Player of the Year candidate Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox (82-57, 45-25 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 7:10 ET in a game televised live nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -107.

This series could very well be a preview of the ALCS this season with these two teams now the top two seeds in the American League, and the Tigers drew first blood on the road 3-0 on Monday as Doug Fister out-dueled John Lackey.

That still leaves Boston with the best record in the American League, although that margin has now been trimmed to just one-half game over the Tigers with the teams tied in the loss column. The Red Sox lead the American League East by 5.½ games over the slumping second place Tampa Bay Rays while Detroit has a huge 8½-game lead on the Cleveland Indians in the Central Division.

Following the great pitching performances yesterday, do not be surprised by yet another pitching duel today. Sure, Scherzer comes off of his worst start of the season where he allowed six runs with five of them earned on eight hits in just five innings vs. the Oakland Athletics, but we are still talking about a guy looking to join Roger Clemens as the only pitchers to ever begin a year 20-1, and Scherzer has phenomenal numbers across the board in support of that record.

He has a spiffy 2.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .196 batting average allowed and 201 strikeouts in 183.1 innings against just 43 walks, and he has also allowed a reasonable 16 home runs. Just about the only blemish on Scherzer’s record here is his 7.90 career ERA vs. the Red Sox, but he has obviously come into his own this season and he showed it in his only start vs. Boston this year, allowing just two runs on six hits in seven innings with six strikeouts and no walks.

Scherzer is not the only hot pitcher in this game with a potential award coming at the end of the season though, as the Comeback Player of the Year candidate Lester is in raging form having allowed three runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts including the last five in a row, and furthermore he allowed two earned runs or less in four of the last five starts.

There were whispers that Lester was finished when he went 9-14 with a poor 4.82 ERA last season, but he has gone 12-7 with a 3.84 ERA in 2013 and that ERA just continues to plummet with each passing start.

Finally, the ‘under’ is now 11-5 in Lester’s last 16 home starts, and given that he is facing the probable Cy Young winner, look for that trend to continue for one more game on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Tigers, Red Sox ‘under’ 8 (-107)

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