MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, August 27, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

After a very low scoring game in the series opener, look for more of the same in a matchup of two also-rans on Tuesday when Kyle Kendrick and the Philadelphia Phillies (60-71, 25-40 away) pay a visit to Jonathan Niese and the New York Mets (58-71, 26-37 home) in the second game of a four-game series at Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -101.

Monday might go down as the worst day of the Mets’ already dismal season, not only because they lost 2-1 to the Cliff Lee and Phillies on a two-run triple by Cody Asche to waste a fine pitching performance by Zack Wheeler, but mainly because it was learned that Matt Harvey would be lost for the season and possibly beyond if he has Tommy John surgery on a partially torn UCL in his right throwing elbow.

The Phillies took advantage of a despondent Mets’ club that was counting on Harvey to make them relevant again in the upcoming seasons, and that now really has nothing to look forward to in the immediate future.

However, it is not as if the Phillies are tearing the cover off the ball, so the southpaw Niese can certainly keep the Mets in this game by limiting the Philadelphia offense. Niese is in very good form right now as he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts while allowing a reasonable four runs in the other outing. Niese was particularly sharp over his last two starts, allowing a total of two runs while striking out 18 batters in 13 innings.

He now gets to face a Philadelphia team that managed to get long time manager Charlie Manuel fired while batting a woeful .218 over the last 10 games, and that average dips to a horrific .185 vs. left-handed pitchers during that span. Niese already handled the Philadelphia lineup once this season, allowing one earned run on six hits in 6.2 innings in his only 2013 start against the Phillies back in April.

Now Kendrick has been good at times this year for the Phils, but he has been mostly inconsistent while going 10-10 with a 4.45 ERA. His last two starts have been a microcosm of his season, as he first tossed a gem vs. the red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers allowing one earned run in six innings, and he was then nicked up for four runs in five innings by the Colorado Rockies last Thursday.

We could very well see the “good” Kendrick tonight though considering that the Mets are averaging a measly 2.70 runs per game in their last 10 contests and they are batting only .223 vs. right-handed pitchers for the entire season here in their rather spacious home stadium.

Thus look for a carbon copy of last night with each team struggling to score runs in another ’under’ on Tuesday.

[gameodds]3/242025/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Phillies, Mets ‘under’ 7½ (-101)