MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, August 20, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Two young pitchers having excellent seasons should produce an ‘under’ on national television on Tuesday when Patrick Corbin and the Arizona Diamondbacks (64-59, 28-33 away) pay a visit to the Tony Cingrani and the Cincinnati Reds (71-54, 38-21 home) in the second game of a big four-game series from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET in a game televised live nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -125.

This series could very well mean the season for the Diamondbacks and it did not get off to a good start for them as Cincinnati took the series opener 5-3 on Monday. You see, Arizona has now dropped 7½ games behind the red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, so its best chance of making the playoffs may be as a wild card, and last night’s loss dropped the Diamondbacks six games behind the Reds for the final wild card spot.

The Reds would obviously take the wild card spot if they can get it, but they have loftier goals in mind as they are just 2½ games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates while third in the National League Central, with the St. Louis Cardinals splitting those two teams in second. Cincinnati has continued to win despite its offense struggling, especially vs. left-handed pitching, so runs may be scarce in this battle of southpaws.

Corbin has come out of nowhere this season to go 12-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while yielding just a .214 batting average, and he also has 140 strikeouts vs. 42 walks in 163.1 innings. He has also allowed three earned runs or less in 20 of his 24 starts. Now, we admit that we are among those call for regression for Corbin and have stated such several times, but the state of the Cincinnati offense gives Corbin a chance to continue his dream season here.

The Reds are batting just .237 while averaging only 3.62 runs per nine innings against southpaws over the entire season, and that batting average vs. left-handers has slipped to a pitiful .182 over the last 10 games. Corbin took advantage of that weakness the only other time he faced Cincinnati this season, allowing a mere one run and three hits in eight innings.

Corbin is not the only hot pitcher here though as Cingrani has made the loss of Cincinnati ace Johnny Cueto almost an afterthought. It was Cingrani who was pulled out of the bullpen to take Cueto’s rotation spot when the latter was disabled, and all that he has done is allow three runs or less in all eight of his starts since then, leaving Cingrani 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA for the season!

Now, Cueto may come off the Disabled List in about a week and the talk has been that Cingrani will be the odd man out and return to the pen despite his success as a starter. Look for him to make that decision even more difficult for the Reds’ brass with another fine outing tonight.

Thus, look for both pitchers to control the opposing team’s offense in an ‘under’ on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Diamondbacks, Reds ‘under’ 7½ (-125)

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