MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 13, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

There could be a rather unexpected pitching duel on Tuesday night when young Ethan Martin and the Philadelphia Phillies (53-65, 24-38 away) pay a visit to Kris Medlen and the Atlanta Braves (72-47, 40-17 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Turner Field in the Atlanta, GA at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -106.

The Phillies took the series opener 5-1 on Monday as they finally scored enough runs for Cole Hamels to get a win, but the Braves have overtaken the Pirates for the best record in the Major Leagues and they still have a commanding 14-game lead on the second place Washington Nationals in the National League East.

The Phillies were in the division race at the All-Star break, but they have gone 4-17 in the last 21 games to fall into fourth place at an insurmountable 18½ games out, even dropping two games behind the New York Mets. This gives Philadelphia a chance to look at Martin, who is one of the better pitching prospects in a mostly bare Phillies’ farm system.

Martin did not have a good stat line in his Major League debut vs. these Braves on August 2nd allowing six runs in 4.1 innings, although he actually pitched well for four innings until being charged with five runs while recording only one out in the fifth. He avoided the big inning in his second start and as a result allowed only one run on four hits in five innings while picking up his first Major League win vs. the Chicago Cubs on Thursday.

As hot as the Braves have been, they are still batting just .237 as a team over the last 10 games while relying heavily on the home run, so as long as Martin can keep the ball in the yard, he can build on his promising second outing and get a measure of revenge on the Braves here. On top of that, this is sort of a homecoming for Martin who hails from about 95 miles away in Toccoa, GA.

The Atlanta pitching staff took a hit when Tim Hudson was lost for the season, but that opened up the door for Medlen, who was rumored to be heading to the bullpen with the returns of Brandon Beachy and Alex Wood. Instead, Medlen has seized this second opportunity by going 3-0 in his last three starts while allowing only 20 baserunners in 19 innings with 18 strikeouts.

That improves Medlen to 9-10 with a respectable 3.85 ERA after a terrible beginning to this season, and he now gets to face a Philadelphia offense batting .237 over the last 10 games. Medlen was an unlucky 2-0 loser the only time he faced the Phillies at Turner Field this year, allowing the two runs in the second inning but getting no support from his offense while shutting the Phillies down the rest of the way.

Thus, look for both hurlers to pitch well enough to keep this game ‘under’ on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Phillies, Braves ‘under’ 8½ (-106)

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