MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, August 6, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Runs could be hard to come by in an interesting interleague battle on Tuesday night when Daniel Straily and the Oakland Athletics (64-47, 29-27 away) pay a visit to Mat Latos and the Cincinnati Reds (61-51, 33-20 home) in the first game of a brief two-game series from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at +100.

The Athletics are slumping a bit as they have lost four of their last five games including losing two out of three at home to the second place Texas Rangers this past weekend, but they are still in first place in the American League West with a two-game lead over Texas. Oakland also comes into this series in an offensive slump, scoring a grand total of nine runs while batting just .207 over those last five games.

The Reds have not exactly been scorching the ball lately either, in fact batting an even worse .190 overall while averaging 2.70 runs over the last 10 games. Cincinnati is still trying to hang in the division race in a National League Central that includes two teams that have two of the three best records in all of baseball, as the Reds trail the first place Pittsburgh Pirates by 6½ games and the second place St. Louis Cardinals by four games.

The Reds are obviously asking more of their pitchers while their offense struggles, and Latos has obliged by posting a 2.41 ERA while allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last three starts, leaving him at a nice 10-3 with a 3.38 ERA for the season. He also has an excellent ratio of 142 strikeouts vs. 43 walks in 138.2 innings and he is facing Oakland for the first time ever, which should make him doubly tough to hit for an already struggling Oakland offense.

Best of all, Latos grades out well Sabremetrically, as his 3.02 FIP and 3.28 xFIP are actually running slightly better that his already good ERA, which lessens the chances of negative regression in the near future.

Straily was supposed to be the next big Oakland home-grown pitcher when he was called up last season, but while he has shown some glimpses of greatness he has been mostly inconsistent while going 6-5 with a 4.41 ERA. However, the good news is that Straily has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts despite going just 2-3 in those starts, and he too is making his first career start vs. Cincinnati, which should give him an advantage.

Finally, the Oakland bullpen has also been hot with a 2.34 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over the last 10 games, so go ‘under’ in Cincinnati on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Athletics, Reds ‘under’ 8 (+100)

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