MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, July 30, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 30, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

There could be a somewhat unexpected pitching duel down in “Hot-lanta” Tuesday evening when the rejuvenated Juan Nicasio and the Colorado Rockies (51-56, 20-30 away) pay a visit to rookie southpaw Alex Wood and the Atlanta Braves (61-45, 35-15 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Turner Field in Atlanta, GA at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

These teams went ‘over’ Monday night when Brandon Beachy struggled in his first start in over a year following Tommy John surgery as we predicted, but unfortunately for us the Rockies blew a 5-0 lead and lost 9-8 in 10 innings to cost us a nice underdog winner.

The Braves have been in first place longer than any other team in baseball and they also have the biggest division lead, currently at nine games over the second place Washington Nationals in the National League East, no doubt aided by Atlanta having the best home record in the majors at 35-15. The Rockies are in their own divisional race in the National League West as they are in third place at a manageable 6½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.

We expect a much lower scoring affair tonight and the performance of Nicasio since returning from the minors is a key reason. Nicasio was 4-4 with a 5.31 ERA while failing to go as many as seven innings in 16 starts when he was demoted to AAA following a dismal start vs. the Boston Red Sox June 25th. Well, all that Nicasio has done in three starts since being recalled is allow a total of one run and eight hits in 19 innings while twice working seven scoreless innings!

Furthermore, he looked like he could have gone beyond seven innings at Miami in his last start Thursday, but he was pulled after a lengthy rain delay with the score 0-0 in the seventh inning. As great as the Braves record is, their offense has been erratic all year and they are batting just .230 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while averaging only 3.84 runs per nine innings against them, so Nicasio’s newfound success may continue tonight.

Atlanta counters with the 22-year-old Wood, who has made two starts this season both vs. the New York Mets to go along with 15 relief appearances. Wood is 0-2 but he has not pitched terribly, as he has a 3.42 ERA with a nice ratio of 31 strikeouts against 10 walks in 26.1 innings. Wood also has the good fortune to now be catching a Colorado lineup that is batting only .233 vs. left-handed pitchers the last 10 games while averaging 3.97 runs against them.

Should Wood be on a short leash, it would not necessarily be a bad thing considering the Atlanta bullpen leads the Major Leagues with its 2.59 ERA, and that ERA has shrunk to 2.05 over the last 10 contests.

Thus, look for a relatively low-scoring game and for these teams to stay ‘under’ on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Rockies, Braves ‘under’ 8 (-113)

comment here