MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, July 23, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 23, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

There could be sneaky value on the ‘under’ in a matchup of two pitchers that each have a deceptively high ERA Tuesday when rookie Kyle Gibson and the Minnesota Twins (42-54, 19-30 away) pay a visit to veteran Tommy Hanson and the Los Angeles Angels (46-51, 26-27 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 10:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -102.

The Angels remain one of the most disappointing teams in all of baseball given their enormous payroll, and after appearing to turn a corner by winning the first two games after the All-Star break over the first place Oakland Athletics, Los Angeles has lost its last two games including the series opener to the Twins here last night. The Halos are tied for third place in American League West at five games under .500 and 11 full games behind the A’s.

The Twins are in fourth place in the American League Central just three games ahead of the last place Chicago White Sox and 11 games behind the front running Detroit Tigers, but they have continued to play hard while going 5-1 in their last six games and getting a pitching gem from Samuel Deduno in a 4-3 win here in Anaheim Monday, and they now have a promising youngster on the mound tonight.

Do not be fooled by the fact that Gibson has a 6.45 ERA as he has actually pitched well in three of his four starts since getting called up to the Major Leagues and that ERA is skewed by his one bad outing vs. the New York Yankees where he was charged with eight runs on 11 hits on six innings with two of those runs let in by the bullpen after he departed.

Gibson did show his determination by getting revenge vs. the Yankees in the Bronx in his last start however, improving to 2-2 by allowing only two earned runs and five hits in a 10-4 Minnesota victory. Tonight marks Gibson’s first appearance ever vs. the Angels, which is usually to the pitcher’s advantage, and he is catching a slumping Los Angeles lineup that is averaging only 3.80 runs per game over the last 10 contests.

Now, Hanson is 4-2 with a 5.10 ERA for the Angels, but that is also deceptive as Hanson was in a psychological funk until about a month ago following the tragic death of his young half-brother, which is understandable, and he just recently started pitching like the pitcher the Angels thought they acquired during the off-season that had some nice success with the Atlanta Braves.

Hanson did get hit hard by the Seattle Mariners last time out, but he has still allowed three runs or less in five of his last seven starts, and like Gibson, he too is making his first career appearance vs. his opponents tonight, which should make him doubly tough. He is facing a Minnesota lineup batting only .238 while averaging 3.94 runs per nine innings vs. right-handers overall this season, including batting .227 and averaging 2.18 runs vs. righties the last 10 games!

Finally, the ‘under’ is a perfect 7-0 in the Twins’ last seven games vs. right-handed starters, and we are looking for that trend to continue for at least one more game in Anaheim on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Twins, Angels ‘under’ 8½ (-102)

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