MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, July 9, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 9, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

A matchup of promising young pitchers could lead to an ‘under’ Tuesday night when Kyle Gibson and the Minnesota Twins (37-49, 16-26 away) pay a visit to Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays (50-40, 29-18 home) in the second game of a long four-game series from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -109.

The Rays are on fire right now as they have now won five straight games and nine of their last 10 after taking the series opener 7-4 last night, and in a tight American League East, this hot streak has allowed them to move from a last place tie with the Toronto Blue Jays to now sole possession of second place, just 3½ games behind the Boston Red Sox.

The Rays have gotten sparkling pitching during this hot streak, posting a 2.05 team ERA over the last 10 games with the stating pitchers accumulating a 1.93 ERA while averaging 6.2 innings per start. Of course it has helped that ace David Price has sparkled in his two starts since coming off of the Disabled List, but the rest of the starters have also done their part including the young Archer.

Archer was shaky in his 2013 debut on June 1st allowing five earned runs in just four innings vs. the Cleveland Indians, but he has looked like a poised veteran while allowing three earned runs or less in each of his six starts since then, most recently holding the Houston Astros to two runs on only two hits in six innings with five strikeouts on the Fourth of July, getting no decision in a game the Rays ultimately won 7-5 in 11 innings.

Archer was in line for the win that day but the Tampa Bay bullpen coughed up a 5-2 lead in the eighth inning. There is no reason for Archer’s string of Quality Starts to end tonight either vs. a Minnesota team batting a measly .229 vs. right-handed pitchers on the road, a key reason why the Twins are 10 games under .500 away from home.

The Twins have their own promising rookie in Gibson, who looked very good in his Major League debut vs. the Kansas City Royals on June 29th allowing two runs in six innings with five strikeouts and not a single walk, but he was knocked around for eight runs on 11 hits in 5.1 innings by the New York Yankees in his second start July 4th.

We will excuse that effort though as Gibson was probably going through some expected growing pains and was probably more nervous during his second start because he was facing the “mighty Yankees” than he was in his debut. Scouts love Gibson because he has exhibited very good control at every level, which has actually continued in the Major Leagues as he has just one walk in 11.1 innings, while consistently hitting the mid-90s with his fastball.

We expect a sold bounce-back effort from him today vs. a Tampa Bay offense that is batting 35 percentage points lower vs. right-handed pitchers (.246) than vs. left-handed pitchers (.281) overall this season.

Finally, the fact that neither team has seen the opposing starter yet should help both pitchers for at least the first turn through the respective lineups, so go ‘under’ in St. Petersburg on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Twins, Rays ‘under’ 8½ (-109)

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