MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

A nice battle of southpaws should produce a low scoring game on Tuesday when Mark Buehrle and the Toronto Blue Jays (38-37, 16-20 away) pay a visit to Matt Moore and the Tampa Bay Rays (40-37, 22-16 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The Rays snapped the Blue Jays’ 11-game winning streak in a low scoring 4-1 win last night behind seven shutout innings by Jeremy Hellickson, who continued the mastery he has had over Toronto throughout his career. That broke a tie between these teams and pushed Toronto back to last place in the American League East, although they are still only 5½ games behind the first place Boston Red Sox, while Tampa Bay is in fourth place and 4½ games back.

As it turns out, Hellickson is not the only pitcher on the Tampa Bay staff that has given the Blue Jays fits as Moore also fits that bill. However, Buehrle has turned his first season in Toronto around quite nicely too, so both pitchers should control this contest from the outset.

Remember that Tampa Bay Manager Joe Maddon thought so highly of Moore that he selected him to start Game 1 of the 2011 ALDS vs. the Texas Rangers after just two Major League starts, when he tossed a gem while beating the eventual American League Champions. Moore was showing why the Rays are so high on him this year before a recent slump, but he looked back on track while holding the Yankees to three runs and four hits in 6.1 innings Thursday.

That was Moore’s first win since May 19th and improved him to 9-3 on the season, and he has pitched well in five career starts vs. Toronto while not allowing more than two runs in any of them, including one start this season where he allowed two runs and six hits in a 10-4 win on May 8th here at “The Trop”.

Buehrle was signed by Toronto in the off-season to bolster the pitching staff, and his performance this year has mirrored that of his team as he got off to a slow start but has been red-hot lately. Buehrle is still just 4-4 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.35 WHIP overall because of that slow start, but he is 3-2 in his last eight stars with the Blue Jays as a team going 6-2, and he allowed three earned runs or less in seven of those eight outings.

This streak includes one start vs. these Rays back in Toronto where Buehrle allowed only two runs and four hits in seven innings while getting no decision in a 4-3 Rays’ victory. He also has the support of a Toronto bullpen that has been a huge part of the Toronto hot streak as it has been virtually unhittable as of late, posting a microscopic 0.69 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 22 innings over the last 10 games.

Thus, look for yet another ‘under’ in this head-to-head series on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Blue Jays, Rays ‘under’ 8 (-105)

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