MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

Expect a relatively low scoring affair in the Twin Cities Tuesday night when Dylan Axelrod and the Chicago White Sox (29-38, 13-24 away) pay a visit to Mike Pelfrey and the Minnesota Twins (30-36, 16-17 home) in the opening game of a three-game series from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

The White Sox have now replaced the Twins as the last place team in the American League Central after losing three out of four games vs. the team with the worst record in the AL, the Houston Astros, over the weekend as they salvaged the final game on Monday. Meanwhile, the Twins have gone a respectable 11-8 in their last 19 games to climb to fourth place with a 1½-game lead over the White Sox, trailing first place Detroit by eight games.

The Twins are still not hitting though, as they are batting a dismal .214 over their last 10 games overall while averaging only 2.80 runs per game over those contests, which should give you an idea of how improved their pitching has been lately, especially the Minnesota bullpen, which has a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over those same last 10 games.

Tuesday’s starter Pelfrey is still just 3-6 with a 6.12 ERA that is among the highest of Major League starting pitchers, but just like his team as a whole, Pelfrey has shown some vast improvement as of late by allowing three runs or less in six of his last eight starts including his last three outings in a row.

Pelfrey now has a good chance to continue that improvement vs. a White Sox team that has scored the fewest runs in the American League while averaging 3.60 runs per game, and Chicago is second to last in the AL in team batting average at .239, ahead of only the Seattle Mariners (.237).

Axelrod does not have eye-popping numbers overall for the White Sox either at 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, but he too is showing improvement lately. Granted he was touched up for six runs in just four innings by the Toronto Blue Jays his last time out, but that snapped a streak where Axelrod had allowed three runs or less in five consecutive starts and in nine of his previous 10 outings.

Axelrod pitched reasonably well in what was his first career start vs. the Twins last month when he allowed three runs in 5.1 innings with four strikeouts and he is now catching a struggling Minnesota lineup that is batting a measly .194 vs. right-handers over the last 10 games. The Chicago bullpen has also performed well over that time with a 2.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Add all of this up and this could be a sneaky pitching duel, so go ‘under’ in Minneapolis on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: White Sox, Twins ‘under’ 8½ (-105)

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