MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

In what could be a lower scoring game than the total suggests on Tuesday night, Corey Kluber and the Cleveland Indians (30-33, 12-21 away) pay a visit to Derek Holland and the Texas Rangers (38-25, 19-8 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -102.

The Rangers took the series opener here last night 6-3 as they received six effective innings from Josh Lindblom before breaking a 3-3 tie with three runs on two home runs in the seventh inning, as Lance Berkman hit the game winning blast before Jeff Baker added a two-run shot. Thus the Rangers maintain their one-game lead over the second place Oakland Athletics in the American League West.

The Rangers have been known for their bludgeoning offense for quite a few years, but they are winning with pitching this season as the Texas staff is ranked second in the American League with a 3.56 staff ERA, and although Yu Darvish is the ace of the staff, a case can be made that tonight’s starter Holland has been the best Texas pitcher so far.

The southpaw Holland received no decision vs. the Boston Red Sox last time out despite allowing only two runs in six innings, and he is now 5-2 with a sparkling 2.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this season with 76 strikeouts in 79.2 innings compared to 21 walks. Holland has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his 12 starts this year and three earned runs or less in nine of them, and he is 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his career vs. the Indians.

From a Sabremetric perspective, Holland is tied for eighth in the Major Leagues in WAR at 2.7 and 12th in FIP at 2.60, ranking ahead of Darvish in both of those categories, and he is ranked 15th in xFIP at 3.20. He is also catching a Cleveland lineup batting a hideous .169 vs. left-handed pitchers in the last 10 games.

The Indians are fading after a hot start that had them leading the American League Central for a while, as they have now slipped to three games under .500, although that is still good enough for second place 5½ games behind the Detroit Tigers in a weak division. Their Tuesday starter Kluber is 3-4 with a 4.56 ERA, but he has pitched better than that as a couple of very rough outings have skewed that ERA.

Kluber does have a much more respectable 1.24 WHIP and he has a fantastic ratio of 54 strikeouts against nine walks in 49.1 innings! When he allowed four earned runs in six innings vs. the New York Yankees last time out, it marked only the second time in his eight starts that he allowed more than three earned runs, with the previous time blowing up his ERA as he was touched up for eight earned runs in 4.2 innings by the Tigers.

Kluber has the best FIP (3.39) and xFIP (2.84) on the Cleveland staff, with that xFIP even being better than Holland’s, and his 0.8 WAR is second best on the Indians behind Justin Masterson, so he could be potentially undervalued because of his deceptive ERA.

Thus, look for both pitchers to perform well and for this contest to stay ‘under’ on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Indians, Rangers ‘under’ 9½ (-102)

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