MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Tuesday, May. 28, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

The scoreboard operator should be kept busy in what looks like an ugly pitching matchup Tuesday night when Edinson Volquez and the San Diego Padres (22-28, 9-16 away) pay a visit to Brandon Maurer and the Seattle Mariners (22-29, 13-11 home) in the final game of a two-game series from Safeco Field in Seattle, WA before these same two teams travel to San Diego for two more games on Wednesday and Thursday. The first pitch Tuesday is at 10:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -108.

The Mariners had lost eight straight games heading into Sunday, but they snapped the skid by getting by the Texas Rangers 5-4, and they then exploded for a 9-0 win in the series opener vs. the Padres on Monday while belting out 11 hits off of Clayton Richard and two San Diego relievers.

That fine pitching outing by Seattle’s Aaron Harang was an anomaly for a staff that has struggled after ace Felix Hernandez, as even with King Felix posting his usual great numbers, the starters still have just a collective 4.45 ERA. Thus, do not look for another shutout tonight with Maurer on the bump.

Maurer has been one of the more highly regarded young pitchers in the Seattle minor league system for a couple of years and he made the big club with a very good spring training, but he has been a disappointment at the Major League level to this point. Maurer is just 2-6 with a lofty 6.80 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, and he has not been fooling many batters with the league batting a hearty .328 off of him.

His command is not where it needs to be with 16 walks against 30 strikeouts and Maurer is coming off of a simply abysmal effort vs. the Los Angeles Angels last Wednesday, as he lasted only three innings while getting torched for seven earned runs on 11 hits plus two walks with just two strikeouts.

The Padres counter with Volquez, who has also been erratic while going 3-5 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.57 WHIP while yielding a .280 batting average. Yes, he has looked good at times, but more often than not he has looked like he has in his last two starts when he surrendered exactly five earned runs on each occasion, first in five innings vs. the Washington Nationals and most recently in six innings vs. the St. Louis Cardinals last Tuesday.

Granted Seattle is toward the bottom of the American League in hitting, but the Mariners have been better vs. right-handed pitchers recently, batting .289 against them over the last five games while averaging 4.43 runs per nine innings, so they should be able to get to Volquez in his poor current form here.

Thus expect both teams to score enough for this game to quite possibly reach the double-digits for a rather safe ‘over’ on Tuesday.


MLB Pick: Padres, Mariners ‘over’ 8 (-108)

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