MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Tuesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 21, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

While the ‘under’ may not be your first instinct when it comes to these two journeymen pitchers Tuesday, both are actually in good current form as Aaron Harang and the Seattle Mariners (20-25, 9-16 away) pay a visit to Jerome Williams and the Los Angeles Angels (17-27, 10-13 home) in the first game of a brief two-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 10:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -106.

You probably would have won a lot of bar bets during the off-season had you predicted that the third place Mariners would be 2½ games ahead of the fourth place Angels at this point of the season, given that Los Angeles has one of the biggest payrolls in the league. The Halos may be starting to turn thing around though as they won their last two games vs. the Chicago White Sox over the weekend after dropping the first two games of that four-game series.

The Angels still have some work to do however as they trail the first place Texas Rangers by 11½ games, which is huge now that we are just 10 days away from the beginning of June, and it does not help that Albert Pujols is batting just .241 with seven home runs and 25 RBI or that their big off-season signee Josh Hamilton has been even worse, batting .216 with five dingers and a mere 12 driven in.

Los Angeles has also had some injuries to the pitching staff that has forced the versatile Williams into the rotation, but luckily he has done fine job after getting hit hard by the Baltimore Orioles in his first start. Williams has allowed a total of four runs on 12 hits in 12.2 innings in his last two starts, including allowing two runs on five hits in six innings without issuing a walk in the first game of the series vs. the White Sox Thursday, although the bullpen blew the lead.

Williams should have continued success tonight vs. a Seattle offense that is batting just .231 vs. right-handed pitchers this season, an average that drops to a depressing .215 on the road where the Mariners are averaging only 3.28 runs per nine innings against them.

Lack of offense is nothing new for the Mariners, but they are 20-25 because they have two excellent starting pitchers in former Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma and their other starters have come up big on occasion including Harang, who is coming off of back-to-back Quality Starts after two awful outings skewed his ERA and WHIP to their current 7.30 and 1.42 respectively.

Harang has allowed exactly two runs in six innings in each of his last two starts, allowing a total of only nine hits in those 12 innings with 11 strikeouts and only one walk. Yes his last bad start came against these Angels when he gave up five earned runs in only three innings on April 26th, but he also allowed only three earned runs in 13 innings over two Quality Starts vs. the Halos last season, so we will forgive his last effort against them especially with his fine form since.

Look for both veteran pitchers to maintain their recent form and for these clubs to stay ‘under’ on Tuesday.

[gameodds]3/227387/238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Mariners, Angels ‘under’ 8½ (-106)