MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, October 24, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 24, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

There could be a higher scoring game than the relatively low posted total suggests on Thursday night when Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals try to even up the series as they pay a visit to John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the World Series from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -114.

The Red Sox drew first blood in the series opener last night with an 8-1 blowout with the help of three St. Louis errors, but this series is far from over as the Cardinals are an experienced team that just won the World Series two years ago, so they will not be flustered by being down 0-1 in the series, especially with young Wacha on the mound, who has been the best pitcher in the league throughout these playoffs and who earned his NLCS MVP Award.

The Cardinals do understand the urgency of the situation however as they know that they can ill afford to go down 0-2, and we look for an offense that ranked second in the National League in batting this season at .269, just one percentage point behind the Colorado Rockies without the benefit of the altitude, to hit much better vs. the right-hander Lackey tonight than it did vs. southpaw Jon Lester on Game 1.

Lackey finished 10-13 during the regular season, and although he may have been better than that with a 3.52 ERA and 161 strikeouts vs. 40 walks, he was also inconsistent. That inconsistency has continued in the playoffs despite a 2-0 record, as yes he tossed a gem vs. the Detroit Tigers last time out but he did not pitch well when his offense bailed him out in a win over the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS, allowing four earned runs and 10 baserunners in 5.1 innings.

He now must deal with a Cardinal lineup in must-win mode that has hit right-handers far better then left-handers this season, hitting .271 and averaging 5.20 runs per nine innings vs. righties combining the regular season and playoffs compared to just a .232 average and 3.72 runs per nine vs. southpaws!

Now we totally get that Wacha has been virtually unhittable this post-season allowing just one run on a solo home run in 20 innings with 22 strikeouts, including tossing 13.2 scoreless innings in the NLCS vs. the Dodgers to win the MVP. However, if the Cardinals get to Lackey as we expect, Wacha may not need to allow much here to push this game ‘over’.

And let’s face it, the Boston offense is a step up in class from the Pirates and the Dodgers. That is not to diminish what Wacha has done as he is no flash in the pan after also allowing two runs or less in seven of his nine regular season starts. However, after allowing one run in 20 innings vs. lesser offenses, the Red Sox should be able to scrape together at least two of three runs here, and that should be enough to send this total ‘over’.

Thus, go ‘over’ the fairly low number in Game 2 from Boston on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Cardinals, Red Sox ‘over’ 7 (-114)

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