MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, October 3, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

If you are a fan of offensive fireworks, well, then you probably came to the wrong place as we do not expect many of them Thursday night when Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers pay a visit to Kris Medlen and the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the NLDS from Turner Field in Atlanta, GA at 8:37 ET in a game televised nationally on TBS.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 6 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -128.

The Braves earned field advantage for this series by riding an extraordinarily hot start and finishing with the second best record in the National League four games ahead of Los Angeles but one game behind the top-seeded St. Louis Cardinals. Getting home field could prove huge considering Atlanta had the best home record in the majors this season at 56-25.

The Dodgers on the other hand had a terrible start and there were even rumors that the job of Manager Don Mattingly was in jeopardy. That was before Los Angeles called up Yasiel Puig, who instantly energized the franchise and resulted in the Dodgers having the best record in baseball from June 1st onward.

This matchup is all about the pitching though. The Dodgers have the probable National League Cy Young Award winner in Kershaw, who finished 16-9 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while leading the National League with his 232 strikeouts in 236 innings against just 52 walks. The scary part is that Kershaw actually pitched better than his record as he often suffered from a lack of run support.

The fact of the matter is that Kershaw made 33 starts this season and he allowed three earned runs or less in 30 of them! Furthermore, he allowed two earned runs or less 26 times including doing so in 12 of his last 13 starts, and he finished the regular season by tossing 13 scoreless innings in his last two outings. He now gets to face an Atlanta lineup that hit just .236 vs. southpaws the entire season and .191 while averaging 2.55 runs against them the last 10 games.

However, remember what was said about Kershaw often not getting much run support? Well, the Braves’ counter to him tonight is the National League Pitcher of the Month for September in Medlen, who went 4-0 in five starts during the month with, well, a Kershaw-like 1.00 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a .197 batting average allowed!

Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of Medlen’s season is that he was actually on his way to the bullpen after a poor start to the year, only to get a reprieve in the starting rotation when Tim Hudson went down with a season-ending injury. Because of that poor start, Medlen finished just 15-12 although he did manage to lower his ERA to 3.11 for the year.

To say Medlen took full advantage of his second chance would be an understatement as he went 9-3 with a 2.38 ERA following the All-Star break. Moreover, he did not allow a single earned run in two starts vs. the Dodgers this season, allowing a total of seven hits in 13.2 innings with 11 strikeouts.

While we realize that this is a low posted total, it is there for a reason and we expect both starters to maintain their current form for an ‘under’ in NLDS Game 1 on Thursday.

[gameodds]3/246630/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Dodgers, Braves ‘under’ 6 (-128)