MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, September 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

Two also-rans that both come off of a series of low scoring affairs meet up to begin a season-ending series Thursday night, and do not expect the offense to pick up when John Hellweg and the Milwaukee Brewers (71-87, 34-43 away) pay a visit to Dillon Gee and the New York Mets (73-85, 32-45 home) in the first game of a four-game series from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

The Brewers have actually won three of their last four games all vs. playoff teams, first winning the last game of a series vs. the St. Louis Cardinals and then taking two of three from the Atlanta Braves. All three games of that Atlanta series went ‘under’ though with Milwaukee scoring six runs in the last two games even with a 4-0 shutout win behind Kyle Lohse last night.

The Mets have also been playing better winning five of their last six games, including hurting the playoff standing of the Cincinnati Reds by taking two out of three from them the last three days. Like the Brewers, the Mets are still not really hitting though scoring seven runs in those three games including a 1-0 win yesterday.

The Mets’ fine pitching may now continue with Gee on the hill, who has quietly had a fine season going 12-10 pitching for a team that is 12 games under .500 with a nice 3.54 ERA, and he has maintained his fine form for the most part by allowing two runs or less in three of his last five starts, with the ‘under’ going 19-12 in all of his starts this season.

Gee is facing a Milwaukee lineup that is batting a dismal .236 over the last 10 games, including hitting a woeful .214 vs. right-handed pitchers during that time while averaging only 3.72 runs per nine innings against them. The Brewers have also struggled vs. right-handers on the road all season, batting .238 and averaging just 3.58 runs per nine innings against them away from home.

Granted Hellweg was awful in his first few starts for Milwaukee, necessitating a demotion to Triple-A Nashville, and he is still 1-4 with a 7.42 ERA in six outings at the Major League level, but he has improved a bit since being recalled allowing three runs or less in two of his three starts.

Besides, Hellweg should also benefit by facing a pedestrian Mets’ lineup that is batting .226 overall and averaging 3.40 runs per game over the last 10 games. Furthermore, the Mets are batting an atrocious .217 while averaging 3.36 runs per game here at spacious Citi Field over the entire season, helping account for the Mets being 13 games under .500 at home while actually being one game over .500 on the road!

With all of this in mind, look for a low scoring snoozer as a safe ‘under’ in Flushing on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Brewers, Mets ‘under’ 7½ (-110)

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