MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, September 19, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 19, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

Runs should be extremely hard to come by in a key battle in the American League wild card race Thursday night when Yu Darvish and the Texas Rangers (82-69, 43-34 away) pay a visit to Matt Moore and the Tampa Bay Rays (83-68, 37-39 home) in the fourth and final game of a critical four-game series from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL at 7:10 ET in a game televised regionally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 6½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

These are the two teams currently holding the two wild card spots in the American League with the Rays now holding a one-game lead in the first wild card spot over the Rangers in the second wild card spot after Tampa Bay won in walk-off fashion last night on an RBI single by Desmond Jennings in the 12th inning.

That made it two wins in the first three games of this series for the Rays, and it puts pressure in the Rangers with the Cleveland Indians only one-half game behind them and the Baltimore Orioles just one game back.

Now this might look like a very low total at first glance but this pitching matchup certainly warrants it and the pressurized situation that both teams are in should add to the intensity as the Rangers try to gain a split in this series.

Texas certainly has the right pitcher with which to do so in Darvish, despite the fact that he has lost each of his last four starts and is winless in his last six outings. You see Darvish is one of the best pitchers in the American League this season and he has simply been pitching in horrific luck while losing his last two starts by identical 1-0 scores! In fact he had identically great line scores in each of those efforts allowing one run on just four hits in seven innings.

He also has a total of 16 strikeouts vs. two walks in those 14 innings, leaving Darvish with a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP for the season while incredibly yielding just a .190 batting average and leading the Major Leagues with his 256 strikeouts in only 193.2 innings against only 68 walks, so basically his 12-9 record is rather farcical!

Unfortunately he may pitch in tough luck again tonight vs. the Rays’ All-Star pitcher Moore, who is a spiffy 15-3 overall with a 3.11 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 136 innings. Granted Moore has not won since beating the Los Angeles Angels on September 3rd in Anaheim, but it is not as if he has not pitched well in his two no-decisions since then.

First, Moore allowed one run and five hits in 6.1 innings vs. the Seattle Mariners and then he tossed three scoreless innings allowing one hit and striking out five vs. the Minnesota Twins before being pulled due to an extended rain delay. Moore also pitched well in his first ever regular season meeting vs. the Rangers earlier this year when he allowed just one hit in 5.1 scoreless innings.

In fact the Rangers have yet to score a run off of Moore as you may recall that he started Game 1 of the ALDS vs. Texas as a rookie in 2011 and tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing a scant two hits, so go ‘under’ in St. Petersburg on Thursday.

[gameodds]3/243764/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Rangers, Rays ‘under’ 6½ (-113)

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