MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, September 12, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 12, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

There could be more runs scored in the Windy City than the posted total suggests Thursday night when Corey Kluber and the Cleveland Indians (77-68, 32-23 away) pay a visit to John Danks and the Chicago White Sox (58-87, 33-36 home) in the first game of a four-game series from U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.

The Indians are trying to hang in the playoff race, but losing three of their last four games has not really allowed them to cut into the 1½-game lead that the slumping Tampa Bay Rays have over them in the race for the second wild card spot, and keep in mind that the New York Yankees also stand between the Tribe and the Rays.

At least Cleveland now gets a break in the schedule though by taking on a Chicago team with the second worst record in the American League over the next four days, although for whatever reason the Indians’ starter Kluber has not fared well in his last two starts vs. the White Sox. However the Indians can compensate for that by feasting on an ineffective Danks, especially since they have been crushing left-handed pitching.

Danks had a belated start to this season, but apparently that has not helped keep him fresh in the latter stages. The southpaw is a horrid 4-12 with a 4.45 ERA, and he simply cannot keep the ball in the ballpark as he has allowed 26 home runs this season despite making only 20 starts.

Worst of all, he actually seems to be getting worse lately as he has allowed 10 runs on18 hits in only 10.1 innings over his last two starts vs. the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles, including allowing three more home runs in just 5.1 innings at Baltimore last Friday.

Danks must now contend with a Cleveland lineup that is batting .261 vs. left-handed pitchers while averaging an impressive 5.02 runs per nine innings against them for the entire season, and the Indians have absolutely pummeled southpaws over the last 10 games to the tune of a .340 average and 8.76 runs per nine innings!

Now we are actually quite high on Kluber, who is 8-5 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 121 strikeouts against only 27 walks in 127 innings, and he grades out even better Sabremetrically with a 3.10 FIP and an outstanding 2.95 xFIP, building up to a 2.6 WAR. However, if the Indians get to Danks fairly easily as we expect, Kluber may not need to give up much to push this game ‘over’ and, as we mentioned, he has unexpectedly had some trouble with the Chicago.

The last two times he faced the normally light-hitting White Sox, Kluber has been tagged for eight earned runs in 14.1 innings. With that in mind, look for the White Sox to scratch out just enough runs to held send this game ‘over’ in Chicago on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Indians, White Sox ‘over’ 8½ (-110)

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