MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, September 5, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

Runs could be very tough to come by Thursday night when Jose Quintana and the Chicago White Sox (56-82, 24-48 away) pay a visit to Miguel Gonzalez and the Baltimore Orioles (73-65, 38-29 home) in the first game of a four-game series from Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD at 7:05 ET in a game televised live regionally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.

The Orioles just took a bit of a hit in their playoff chase by losing two out of three games on the road to the Cleveland Indians. That pushes Baltimore all the way down to fourth place in the American League East and 9½ games behind the division leading Boston Red Sox, although the Orioles trail the Tampa Bay Rays by just four games for the second wild card spot. The problem there though is that the New York Yankees and the Indians are also ahead of them.

The White Sox are not going anywhere as they have now lost six games in a row, they have the second worst record in the American League ahead of only the pitiful Houston Astros and they have scored the fewest runs in the American League. With that said, the White Sox do have some promising pitchers and Quintana is certainly among them.

Quintana actually started vs. the Yankees on Monday, but there was a long rain delay after he tossed one inning to necessitate his removal, allowing him to take this start three days later. Quintana has become the King of the No-Decision as he has pitched very well without much support from the weak Chicago offense.

Quintana has a sparkling 3.69 ERA and he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts. In fact, Quintana has allowed more than four earned runs only twice in his 28 total starts and only once since his seasonal debut. And yet, he is just 7-5 with 16 no-decisions! He was also brilliant in his only start vs. the Orioles this season as he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing only two hits and striking out 11 batters vs. one walk in Chicago on July 4th.

The southpaw is now facing a Baltimore lineup batting just .235 vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games.

Gonzalez comes off of a poor outing for the Orioles vs. the Yankees where he was roughed up for seven earned runs in four innings without striking out a batter, surrendering two home runs a and walking three. Gonzalez had allowed three runs or less in 11 of his previous 13 starts however, so we like his chances of bouncing back well here vs. a White Sox team averaging just 3.79 runs per game overall this season and 3.68 runs on the road.

Furthermore this will be Gonzalez’s first ever appearance vs. Chicago, and considering that they have had trouble scoring runs vs. pitchers that they have seen, how are they supposed to handle a quality starter that they are not familiar with?

Look for both hurlers to have success in an ‘under’ at Camden Yards on Thursday.

[gameodds]3/242511/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: White Sox, Orioles ‘under’ 8 (-107)