MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, August 8, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 8, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

Runs should be at a premium in a nationally televised contest that included the front-runner for the American League Cy Young Award Thursday when Max Scherzer and the smoking-hot Detroit Tigers (67-45, 30-26 away) pay a visit to Zach McAllister and the Cleveland Indians (62-52, 37-22 home) in the final game of a four-game series from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH at 7:05 ET in a game carried nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -114.

The second place Indians were hoping to make progress in the American League Central with this four-game series being at home where they were 37-19 coming in, but instead the Tigers have won the first three games and are now on an 11-game winning streak, leaving them with a six-game lead in the division.

The Tigers are known for their offense, but it has been mostly the pitching that has fueled this winning streak, as when they won 6-5 in extra innings here last night, it snapped a streak of seven consecutive games where Detroit allowed two runs or less! Even the often maligned Detroit bullpen suddenly has a 1.61 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over the last 10 games covering 22 relief innings.

The bullpen may not be much of a concern tonight with Scherzer on the bump though, who has tossed 13.2 scoreless innings while amazingly allowing only four hits with 13 strikeouts vs. three walks in his last two starts. The current Cy Young favorite is 16-1 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, and he has 170 strikeouts in 151.1 innings vs. 34 walks!

Scherzer has also dominated the Indians just like most other teams the last two times he has faced them this year, both times in this stadium, allowing a grand total of three runs on nine hits with 14 strikeouts vs. four walks in 15 innings. He is also now catching a Cleveland lineup batting a mere .218 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging just 2.67 runs per game against them over the last 10 games.

However, Scherzer may have a worthy mound opponent here in McAllister, who has allowed three earned runs or less in three straight starts including allowing exactly two runs each of his last two outings, and he has amazingly allowed three runs or less in all four of his career starts vs. the potent Tigers with a 2.28 ERA against them. The most recent of those outings came on May 12th when he held the Tigers to just two earned runs in six innings.

Do not be fooled by McAllister’s 4-6 record either, as he has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 14 starts this season while allowing a reasonable four earned runs in the other outfit, leaving him with a 3.47 ERA and a nice ratio of 59 strikeouts vs. 27 walks in 83 innings.

Thus, expect a good old fashioned pitchers’ duel in Cleveland on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Tigers, Indians ‘under’ 7½ (-114)

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