MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, August 1, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

A couple of promising young pitchers could produce a relatively low scoring affair Thursday night when Chad Bettis and the Colorado Rockies (51-58, 20-32 away) pay a visit to Julio Teheran and the Atlanta Braves (63-45, 37-15 home) in the final game of a four-game series from Turner Field in Atlanta, GA at 7:10 ET in a contest televised regionally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at +100.

The Braves have taken the first three games of this series and they are on a six-game winnings streak overall. Not only have the Braves been in first place longer than any other team in baseball, but they also have the largest division lead by a considerable margin with a huge 11-game bulge over the second place Washington Nationals in the National League East

The Rockies meanwhile are in third place in the National League West, although they are still within shouting range of the first place Los Angeles Dodgers despite being seven games under .500, as they are 7½ games out with the second place Arizona Diamondbacks splitting those two teams.

Atlanta’s 22-year-old rookie Teheran was considered one of the top pitching prospects, not only in the Atlanta organization but in all of baseball, prior to this season and he is certainly showing why. Tehran has now allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts including hurling seven scoreless innings vs. the Cardinals while allowing only two hits last time out.

Teheran has a misleading 7-5 record this year, as he sports a fine 3.07 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with amazing command for someone so young, as he has 106 strikeouts against only 26 walks in 126 innings. If you like consistency, also consider that Teheran has now incredibly allowed three earned runs or less in 15 of his last 17 starts! He also pitched well in his first start vs. Colorado back in April, allowing one run in seven innings on eight hits without issuing a walk.

The Rockies were in a prolonged offensive slump recently that had them dead last in the majors in runs scored during the month of July until finally having an offensive outburst at home vs. the Milwaukee Brewers last weekend, but their hitting woes have returned over the last two nights as they put up just three runs Tuesday and were shut out 9-0 last night. Do not expect them to suddenly get well again vs. Teheran here.

However, their own rookie pitcher Bettis can keep the Rockies in this game while making his Major League debut. Bettis throws hard, as his fastball averages in the 93-94 MPH range and he has been clocked as high as 98 MPH, but scouts especially love his hard, biting slider which many consider to be his out pitch, and Bettis himself has admitted that he usually has an easier time controlling that slider than he does his fastball.

Bettis as a chance to be successful his first time through the National League, so look for him to do his part in keeping this game ‘under’ on Thursday.

[gameodds]3/240365/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Rockies, Braves ‘under’ 7½ (+100)