MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, July 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

Look for two struggling offenses to continue to do so in the altitude on Thursday when Nate Eovaldi and the Miami Marlins (37-62, 16-35 away) pay a visit to Juan Nicasio and the Colorado Rockies (49-53, 29-24 home) in the final game of a four-game series from Coors Field in Denver, CO at 3:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +102.

The Marlins have taken two of the first three games of this series, but the story has been the low scores in mile-high altitude as Miami won the first two games by scores of 3-1 and 4-2 before the Rockies won a 2-1 pitching duel last night. Then again, that should not be terribly surprising considering that the Marlins have scored the fewest runs in baseball over the entire season at 3.17 per game and the Rockies has scored the fewest this month at 2.89 per contest!

At least the Rockies are still alive in their division race as they are in third place in the National League West and only five games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Marlins on the other hand are in last place in the East Division with the worst record in the National League. Still, this has been a competitive series because of the low scoring and we are looking for more of the same today.

Nicasio has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts for Colorado, and he has been especially sharp over his last two outings. First, Nicasio threw seven scoreless innings vs. the red-hot Dodgers while allowing only three hits at Dodger Stadium, and then he limited the Chicago Cubs to one run while again allowing just three hits over five innings his last time out on Saturday.

He now gets to face a Miami lineup that is batting a dismal .232 overall this season, dead last in the majors, and the Marlins are hitting a pathetic .215 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while averaging a measly 2.08 runs per nine innings against them during that time.

Eovaldi was rocked for six runs and 10 hits in just four innings by the Milwaukee Brewers last time out in his worst start of the season, but he had allowed three runs or less in his first five starts this year since rejoining the starting rotation on June 18th, which left him with a 2.93 ERA entering that last bad start vs. the Brewers that has skewed his ERA to its currently deceptive 4.15. He still has a decent 1.27 WHIP while yielding a .232 batting average.

Also Eovaldi’s two career starts at Coors Field have been quite good as he allowed a total of three earned runs in 12.1 innings over those outings, and he is facing a Colorado lineup batting .223 overall over the last 10 games while averaging 2.60 runs per game.

Finally, both bullpens have been good lately, with the Miami pen posting a sparkling 1.19 ERA over the last 10 games and the Colorado pen at a commendable 3.03 ERA over that same span, which should limit the amount of late tack-on runs here.

Thus, look for this total run output to remain in the single-digits in Denver on Getaway Day Thursday.


MLB Pick: Marlins, Rockies ‘under’ 9½ (+102)

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