MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, July 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

A veteran pitcher that deserves a better record than he has this season and a youngster that showed nice promise at the Major League level last year should combine for a relatively low scoring game Thursday when Ryan Dempster and the Boston Red Sox (56-37, 25-21 away) pay a visit to Erasmo Ramirez and the Seattle Mariners (40-51, 22-24 home) in the final game of a four-game series from Safeco Field in Seattle, WA at 3:40 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -104.

Granted, the first three games of this series all went ‘over’ easily with the winning team scoring exactly 11 runs in each contest as the Mariners took the series opener 11-4 on Monday and the Red Sox prevailed by scores of 11-8 and 11-4 the last two nights respectively, but we are looking for a different type of game today with this pitching matchup.

The Red Sox come in leading the American League East by 3½ games over the red-hot second place Tampa Bay Rays, and while the Boston offense gets most of the publicity, the starting pitchers do have a decent 3.80 cumulative ERA, and the Red Sox have a pitcher that has pitched in some tough luck going today in Dempster.

Despite the success of the Red Sox as a team this year, the veteran Dempster is only 5-8 although he has now allowed three runs or less in his last eight consecutive starts. His last start was a microcosm of how his year has gone, as Dempster held the Los Angeles Angels to just two earned runs in 6.1 innings yet got a no-decision when the Halos scored four runs in the ninth inning to tie the game before winning in extra innings.

Dempster should continue to pitch well today vs. a Seattle team that he has faced only twice in his rather long career, allowing exactly two earned runs on each occasion. The most recent encounter came last season as a member of the Texas Rangers when Dempster held the Mariners to two runs on six his with eight strikeouts against only one walk in 6.2 innings.

He is now catching a Seattle lineup that ranks second to last in the American League with a .242 batting average while averaging 3.82 runs per game overall.

The Mariners are in fourth place in the American League West, and the only reason why they are not in last place is because they are in the same division as the team with the worst record in baseball in the Houston Astros, as Seattle is still a whopping 13½ games behind the first place Oakland Athletics. At least the Mariners are getting some nice pitching help today with the recall of Ramirez from the minors for his initial 2013 Major League start.

Ramirez was quite impressive as a rookie last season despite his deceptive 1-3 record, as he had a 3.36 ERA and an excellent 1.00 WHIP while yielding just a .217 batting average with a great ratio of 48 strikeouts against 12 walks in 59 innings for the Mariners. Ramirez then suffered a triceps injury in spring training though, resulting in this belated seasonal debut.

The Mariners decided to give Ramirez some work in the minors, where he had a 2.96 ERA in eight starts, so he appears ready for his return. He made just a brief appearance vs. Boston last season, but he tossed 2.2 perfect innings with two strikeouts.

Expect both pitchers to pitch well in an ‘under’ in the Emerald City on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Red Sox, Mariners ‘under’ 8 (-104)

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