MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, July 4, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 4, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

There could be at least one game that probably will not have many fireworks on the Fourth of July Thursday when David Phelps and the New York Yankees (45-39, 22-21 away) pay a visit to Kyle Gibson and the Minnesota Twins (36-45, 21-22 home) in the final game of a long four-game series from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN at 2:10 ET in a game televised regionally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -118.

The Yankees are going for a four-game sweep in this game, scoring a total of 17 runs while winning the first two games of this series Monday and Tuesday before winning a 3-2 pitching duel last night behind ace C.C. Sabathia. Wednesday was a closer resemblance to how the New York offense has performed for most of the season with so many of their superstars on the Disabled List, and we expect a similarly low scoring affair today.

With Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira all disabled, with Teixeira in fact now out for the season, the Yankees current have only one real superstar in their lineup in Robinson Cano, who has had a great series thus far but cannot continue to win games by himself. As a result the Yankees are batting an atypical .236 overall as a team this season while averaging a un-Bronx Bomber like 3.93 runs per game.

Their starter Phelps is coning off of an awful outing vs. the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards where he was roughed up for nine runs on nine hits including two home runs in 2.1 innings, with six of those runs coming on two swings, as Major League home run leader Chris Davis and Ryan Flaherty each connected on three-run blasts.

Phelps can take solace in the fact that the Baltimore offense has done that to a lot of pitchers this season, and his 3.83 FIP is running more than a full run ahead of his 4.95 ERA, so he can certainly bounce back well here. It helps that Phelps is facing a Minnesota offense that is batting a scant .239 vs. right-handed pitchers this season and the fact that this is Phelps’ first career start vs. the Twins should also work to his advantage.

The Twins called up their 2009 first round draft pick Gibson from AAA Rochester to start vs. the Kansas City Royals on Saturday and he was impressive while winning his debut, allowing only two runs in six innings with five strikeouts and not a single walk. He displayed very good control while continually hitting the mid-90s with his fastball.

Now, when the Yankees are at full strength, they would normally take a lot of pitches to work the count, making things tougher on young pitchers. However with so many players injured, the younger Yankee players playing now are more of free swingers and even the remaining superstar Cano is more aggressive than the players on the DL.

Thus Gibson can repeat his debut performance here, and do not forget that the Minnesota bullpen is ranked third in the American League in ERA at 3.18 so go ‘under’ on Thursday.


MLB Pick: Yankees, Twins ‘under’ 9 (-118)

comment here