MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, June 20, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

There could be a surprising ‘over’ in a game involving a former Cy Young Award winner having another good year Thursday night when Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners (32-41, 14-24 away) pay a visit to Tommy Hanson and the Los Angeles Angels (32-40, 19-20 home) in the final game of a four-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 10:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -107.

The Angels have taken two of the first three games at home, taking the series opener in an 11-3 slugfest Monday before the teams exchanged lower scoring wins the last two days, with Seattle winning 3-2 on Tuesday and Los Angeles shutting out the M’s 1-0 last night behind C.J. Wilson. Wednesday’s win allowed the Angels to leapfrog the Mariners by one-half game into third place in the American League West, but they trail first place Oakland by 10 games.

Luckily though, Los Angeles plays in one of the weaker divisions in baseball so there is still time to make up that 10-game deficit if the Angels finally start playing up to their payroll. Granted they have a tough assignment on the surface tonight vs. Fernandez, but the Halos have possibly handled him better than any other team in baseball.

King Felix has been his usual self this season as he is 8-4 with a sparkling 2.32 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 110 strikeouts in 104.2 innings against just 20 walks. However, Hernandez has yet to pitch a Complete Game this season, which is bad news considering the Seattle bullpen has struggled all year with a 4.45 ERA and 1.38 WHIP and it has beenn downright horrific the last 10 games with a 7.66 ERA and a ghastly 2.11 WHIP.

And then there are Hernandez’s problems vs. the Angels as he is 7-12 with a 3.96 ERA and a .260 batting average allowed against them in his career. He was actually worse than that in his five starts vs. Los Angeles last season, going 0-3 with a 6.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and a .313 batting average allowed! Thus, look for Felix to allow more runs tonight than he generally has this season and for the bullpen not to provide much relief.

Even the Mariners can help this ‘over’ along vs. Hanson in this spot. Hanson beat the New York Yankees on Saturday 6-2 while allowing two runs and five hits in 6.1 innings with eight strikeouts, but he has been erratic this season while going 4-2 as he has just a 3.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while surrendering a very high .280 batting average.

Remember that Hanson had to take an extended bereavement leave following the sudden death of his 24-year-old half-brother earlier this season, so it could simply be that he is not totally focused on baseball right now, which would certainly be understandable. Saturday’s outing was his first Quality Start since rejoining the rotation.

With both pitchers seeming vulnerable tonight and a low posted total, the ‘over’ appears to have value on Thursday.

[gameodds]3/236786/238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Mariners, Angels ‘over’ 7 (-107)