MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, June 6, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

There could be a sneaky pitching duel on tap on Thursday night between two pitchers with ugly season-to-ate numbers when Mike Pelfrey and the Minnesota Twins (26-30, 13-16 away) pay a visit to Wade Davis and the Kansas City Royals (24-32, 11-15 home) in the third game of a three-game series from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 9 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -116.

The Royals snapped a franchise-record 11-game home losing streak with a 4-1 win here last night, while the Twins have actually been playing some decent baseball as of late, winning seven of their last nine games.

The Royals were a chic darkhorse pick in the American League Central during the preseason, but their young lineup that showed such nice promise last year has not been producing, necessitating Kansas City recently naming George Brett as the new batting coach. The Royals are dead last in the division, although they still trail the first place Detroit Tigers by only 6½ games.

The Kansas City pitching has actually not been that bad for the most past as the Royals have a 3.70 team ERA, although Davis has not contributed much to it while going 3-5 with a poor 6.16 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. Those numbers are obviously disappointing for a pitcher that was highly regarded when coming up with the Tampa Bay Rays, but there have been some encouraging signs as of late.

First off, Davis had eight strikeouts and no walks in an otherwise forgettable five-inning outing vs. the Texas Rangers last time out when he allowed six earned runs. Secondly, that start marked just the third time in Davis’s 11 starts that he allowed more than four earned runs and he has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his starts.

Third and probably most importantly, Davis tossed five scoreless innings and allowed only four hits with six strikeouts the first time he faced the Twins this season. The Royals are giving him every chance to succeed and although the Twins have been winning some games lately, their modest .246 batting average the last 10 games is not much better than their season average of .242.

Pelfrey’s numbers this year are just as ugly as Davis’s as he is 3-6 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. However, Pelfrey too is showing signs of busting out of his funk as of late as he has now allowed three runs or less in four of his last six starts after a tough luck 3-0 loss to the Seattle Mariners his last time out.

Pelfrey now gets a chance to continue his improvement vs. a struggling offense as the Royals are averaging a measly 2.40 runs per game over the last 10 games while batting just .225 overall, and they have not really improved since Brett took over scoring 15 runs in his six games as hitting coach (2.50 RPG).

That should help make Pelfrey’s task easier and if Davis can come close to his first sparkling outing vs. Minnesota, it would help ensure an ‘under’ on Thursday.

[gameodds]3/228808/238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Twins, Royals ‘under’ 9 (-116)