MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Thursday

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, May 16, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Thursday, May. 16, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.

In a pitching rematch from Saturday that ended with a final score of 3-2, look for a similarly low scoring affair Thursday night when Jose Quintana and the Chicago White Sox (17-21, 9-12 away) pay a visit to Jerome Williams and the Los Angeles Angels (15-25, 8-11 home) in the first game of a four-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 10:05 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +106.

The Angels were on the right side of that 3-2 final in Saturday with Williams getting the win, as Los Angeles wound up taking two out of three games in its weekend set vs. the White Sox in the Windy City. The Angels have still been a major disappointment so far this young season though, as they have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and yet find themselves 10 games under .500 and 11 games behind the Texas Rangers.

The Halos looked to have turned a corner when they took the first two games in Chicago, but Chris Sale then very nearly tossed a Perfect Game against them on Sunday and the Angels then proceeded to lose two out of three here at home to the Kansas City Royals. They look to get back on track tonight with the versatile Williams back on the mound.

Williams has split his time between the bullpen and the rotation with the end result being a good 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 32.1 innings. Williams has made two starts and although the first one was not good when he allowed five earned runs in 4.1 innings vs. the Baltimore Orioles, he was good in the win over these White Sox in his follow-up start Saturday while allowing only two runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings.

That leaves Williams with a fine 2.74 career ERA vs. the White Sox in five appearances covering 23 innings, and he is facing a Chicago lineup that is batting only .231 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging just a mere 3.55 runs per nine innings against them.

While the White Sox have had one of the weaker offenses in the league, they are third in the American League with a 3.48 staff ERA, which is a key reason why they have managed to go just four games under .500 without scoring many runs. As you might expect, Chicago has been a very pronounced ‘under’ team at 23-13-2 overall.

The southpaw Quintana has been a big part of Chicago’s pitching success as he deserves better than a 2-1 record, but like the entire White Sox pitching staff, he has gotten very little run support. He was the hard luck loser vs. Williams Saturday despite allowing only two earned runs and five hits in six innings, marking the fifth time in his last six starts that Quintana has allowed three runs or less including two scoreless outings over that time.

Quintana also has a nice ratio of 30 strikeouts vs. 10 walks in 38.2 innings and he is facing an Angel lineup batting a pitiful 228 vs. southpaws this season including an ugly .191 the last 10 games. Thus, look for another ‘under’ in this pitching rematch on Thursday.


MLB Pick: White Sox, Angels ‘under’ 8 (+106)

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