MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, June 29, 2014 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

After an extremely fluky ‘over’ last night, look for the teams to manage to stay ‘under’ on Sunday when Homer Bailey and the Cincinnati Reds (42-38, 23-20 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Tim Hudson and the San Francisco Giants (46-35, 24-20 home) in the final game of a four-game series from AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 4:05 ET in a game televised regionally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +102.

The Reds are attempting to finish off the four-game road sweep here after winning 3-1 Thursday, 6-2 Friday and 7-3 Saturday in 11 innings in a game that was 1-0 in the ninth inning and 2-2 heading into extras, culminating with a terrible beat for those that took the ‘under’ 7 as Cincinnati scored five runs in the 11th and San Francisco added another run for good measure!

These are two teams heading in opposite directions as the Giants are now 4-14 the last 18 games while watching their once huge lead in the National League West shrink all the way down to one game over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Reds meanwhile have overcome a poor start by going 13-4 in their last 17 games to move to four games over .500 and pull within 7½ games of the first place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central and within one game of a wild card.

The Giants’ starter Hudson uncharacteristically comes off of back-to-back sub-par outings that saw him allow a total of 11 earned runs 10.1 innings vs. the Padres and White Sox respectively. However, he is obviously a much better pitcher than that and we expect a strong bounce-back outing today vs. a team that he has had recent success against.

After all, even with those last two stinkers Hudson still owns a 2.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with a great ratio of 64 strikeouts vs. just 16 walks, and he also has the fourth best groundball rate in the Major Leagues at 56.8 percent. And perhaps most importantly in regards to this contest, Hudson is working on a streak that has seen him post six consecutive Quality Starts vs. Cincinnati.

As hot as the Reds have been lately, they are still batting an ordinary .245 while averaging just 3.89 runs per game vs. right-handed pitchers overall this season.

Now Bailey appears to be having an off-season on the surface after signing a big contract with the Reds during the off-season, as he is 7-4 but with only a 4.80 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Homer is also winless at 0-1 over his last three starts while posting a bad 5.71 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

However, Bailey still has a good ratio of 87 strikeouts vs. 31 walks in 95.2 innings, he too has a good groundball rate of 51.2 percent and he has been pitching in bad luck, surrendering a .331 BABIP. All of that has contributed to a much more flattering 3.47 xFIP that suggests that Bailey is in line for some positive regression.

And this could be the perfect spot for that regression to begin vs. a somewhat demoralized San Francisco club that has slumped to a horrible .212 batting average vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, a period in which the Giants are averaging a putrid 2.90 runs per game overall.

Therefore, expect nice comeback outings from both starting pitchers and an ‘under’ on Getaway Day from San Francisco on Sunday.

MLB Pick: Reds, Giants ‘under’ 7 (+102)