MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, October 27, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 27, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

After a relatively high scoring game last night, look for more of the same Sunday with a potentially damaged starter taking on a fourth starter as Clay Buchholz and the Boston Red Sox pay a visit to Lance Lynn and the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 4 of the World Series from Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:17 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX, with St. Louis now leading the series 2-1.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -102.

The Cardinals took a 2-1 series lead under some controversial circumstances as they were awarded the winning run on an obstruction call on Boston’s Will Middlebrooks in the ninth inning of a 5-4 triumph in Game 3 Saturday, although it was probably the right call as the rule is written. In a post-season that has been mostly been dominated by pitching, that result marked the second ‘over’ in three games in this World Series.

We are looking for a similarly high scoring game again tonight with this game also approaching double-digits, as the Boston starter Buchholz has already publicly stated that he is not at 100 percent while suffering from “arm fatigue” while St. Louis is starting its fourth starter here in Lynn as there was no need for the Cardinals to bring back Game 1 starter Adam Wainwright on three days rest with the series lead.

The arm problems help explain the troubles that Buchholz has had in the post-season after he went 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 16 starts during the regular season, and in fact he has not been the same since coming off of a three-month stint on the Disabled List in September. He is made three starts in the playoffs and Buchholz has allowed 10 earned runs on 19 hits plus five walks in just 16.2 innings.

Perhaps the worst news of all for Buchholz is that the Cardinals are snapping out of the offensive slump that that they have been in since just missing leading the National League in batting during the regular season, finishing one percentage point behind the Colorado Rockies while batting .269. St. Louis has scored nine runs the last two games and banged out 12 hits last night.

However, the Red Sox should also be able to score their fair share of runs here vs. Lynn. Granted, he went 15-10 during the season but he posted a 3.97 ERA, and he has posted a 5.40 ERA in three playoff starts with a very mediocre ratio of 12 strikeouts vs. seven walks.

And do not forget that the Red Sox also finished second in the American League with their .276 team batting average, and they are averaging a hefty 5.46 runs per game vs. right-handed pitchers this year combining the regular season and playoffs.

Thus look for a third ‘over’ in four games during this World Series Sunday.


MLB Pick: Red Sox, Cardinals ‘over’ 7½ (-102)

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