MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, September 29, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 29, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

Do not expect much scoring between two struggling offenses in a battle of also-rans happy to see their seasons end on Sunday when David Huff and the New York Yankees (84-77, 38-42 away) pay a visit to a fellow southpaw Erik Bedard and the Houston Astros (51-110, 24-56 home) in the final game of the year from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX at 2:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -119.

At least the Yankees hung in the American League East race much longer than most people expected while missing their superstars for most of the year, but they have simply stopped hitting and fallen off the map over the final few weeks of the season. The Astros meanwhile will finish with the worst record in baseball for the second straight year and have lost 14 straight games, which is a franchise record.

On top of that, both teams are coming off of an emotional night last night with Yankee pitcher and Houston native Andy Pettitte pitching his first Complete Game in seven years in his final Major League start, with doing that in his hometown adding to the emotion of the evening. Thus, neither team figure to show that much enthusiasm today while just waiting for the season’s final pitch.

Now neither starting pitcher has good numbers this season, but in this case it may not matter much since neither team is hitting any type of pitching right now. Huff is 3-1 but with a 6.06 ERA over a limited sample of 32.2 innings including just one previous start. Huff was bombed by the Boston Red Sox that day, but he should appreciate the drop in class here.

That is because the Astros are batting .237 overall and averaging 3.78 runs per game for the year, they are batting .203 vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games while averaging a microscopic 1.51 runs per nine innings against them during that time and they have now scored three runs or less in nine consecutive games including scoring two runs or less in eight of those games!

Houston counters with Bedard, who is 4-12 with a 4.81 ERA in his first season with the Astros after getting hit hard by the Cleveland Indians last time out. But like Huff, Bedard should also benefit here by facing a dead offense after dealing with an Indian team that seems to be in good shape for a wild card spot.

The Yankees have not been the Bronx Bombers this year while batting .239 overall, and New York is batting, well, an Astros-like .203 while averaging 2.60 runs per game over the last 10 games including a .193 average vs. southpaws in that time, and the Yankees have score three runs or less in six straight games.

Add all of this up and look for a season-ending ‘under’ in the Lone Star State on Sunday.


MLB Pick: Yankees, Astros ‘under’ 8½ (-119)

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