MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, September 15, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 15, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

In a bitter rivalry that has not really been renowned for its pitching duels, there actually could be one on Sunday Night Baseball tonight when Ivan Nova and the New York Yankees (79-70, 35-439 away) pay a visit to Clay Buchholz and the Boston Red Sox (91-59, 49-25 home) in the final game of a weekend three-game series from Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -123.

The Red Sox have taken the first two games of this series by scores of 8-4 and 5-1 respectively, simultaneously extending their first place lead over the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East to 8½ games and hurting the Yankees’ playoff chances. The Yankees are out of the running for the division race at 11½ games behind Boston, and they have dropped three games behind the second wild card spot with the Cleveland Indians also ahead of them.

These teams stayed ‘under’ on Saturday, which has become a bit of an anomaly in this head-to-head series including the ‘over’ going 5-2 in the last seven meetings this year. However, we like the chances of a second straight ‘under’ on national television tonight given this pitching matchup.

Buchholz just made his return to the rotation vs. the Rays on Tuesday after spending three months on the Disabled List, and all that he did in his first start back was pitch five scoreless innings while allowing three hits, striking out six and out-dueling reigning Cy Young Award winner David Price in a 2-0 victory! He now figures to get stretched out a bit more in his second start back tonight.

That effort leaves Buchholz at a perfect 10-0 with a sparkling 1.61 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with Boston as a team going 12-1 in his 13 starts. He has sparkled in his two starts vs. the Yankees this year too, allowing a total of one run and eight hits in 12 innings with eight strikeouts.

The Yankees are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive with Nova on the mound, who has shown great maturity this season. Yes, Nova went a combined 28-12 over the last two seasons, but he received tremendous run support in those years and is actually having his best year this season despite just an 8-4 record.

That is because Nova has actually become a pitcher this year without relying on his offense, as his ERA is at a career-best 3.17, and he has been a model of consistency despite being touched up for four runs in six innings by the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday, as Nova has still remarkably allowed three runs or less in 15 of his last 17 starts and he allowed only four runs in the other two outings!

Nova has also allowed three runs or less in each of his last three career starts vs. the Red Sox so go ‘under’ on Sunday Night Baseball from Boston this week.


MLB Pick: Yankees, Red Sox ‘under’ 8½ (-123)

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