MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, August 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

One division leader is trying to complete a surprising four-game sweep Sunday with the Atlanta Braves (77-52, 33-34 away) looking to avoid the broom with southpaw Mike Minor on the hill as they pay a visit to the Lance Lynn and the St. Louis Cardinals (76-53, 39-23 home) in the final game of a four-game series at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 2:15 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

The Cardinals have actually now moved into a flat-footed tie with the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Central by taking the first three games of the series, giving St. Louis a four-game winning streak overall and a 9-2 record over its last 11 games. Ever since the Cardinals won in Atlanta in the Wild Card Playoff Game last season, the home teams have taken over going a perfect 6-0 in this season series in 2013.

The Braves are still not in any danger despite now being just 2-5 in their last seven games, as they still hold a huge 12-game lead in the National League West with about five weeks left in the season. They are now sending what has become one of their more reliable pitchers this season to the mound in Minor to try and avoid the sweep, but considering that the Braves have not hit Lynn well in his two starts against them, we are looking at the ‘under’ here.

Granted Minor was less than stellar in his last start vs. the Washington Nationals when he failed to get out of the second inning while allowing four earned runs on four hits plus four walks, we will grant him a mulligan there and expect him to bounce back strong as he is still 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and his command issues last time out were certainly an anomaly for a guy that has a great ratio of 145 strikeouts vs. 36 walks in 158.2 innings.

As great as the Cardinals have been offensively this season while leading the National League in batting average and runs scored this year, they have done all of their damage vs. right-handed pitching as they are batting a mere .235 vs. southpaws overall while averaging 3.89 runs per games compared to 5.33 runs vs. righties, and Minor exploited that weakness the one time he faced St. Louis this year allowing one run on only four hits in seven innings.

Similarly, Lynn is also better than his last start when he was touched up for six runs (four earned) on nine hits in six innings by the Milwaukee Brewers. Lynn is 13-7 and although his ERA is higher than you would like at 3.97, he has done his best pitching at home where he is 8-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 75 strikeouts in 83 innings.

Lynn is also a perfect two for two in Quality Starts vs. the Braves while allowing a total of five runs in 13 innings with 15 strikeouts vs. four walks without allowing a home run, which is important vs. an Atlanta offense that may rely on the home run more than any other team as the Braves are not very adept at manufacturing runs.

Therefore look for a low scoring game in the series finale on Sunday.


MLB Pick: Braves, Cardinals ‘under’ 7½ (-113)

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