MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, August 4, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

A battle of southpaws could result in a rather low scoring game between two teams that have had their troubles vs. left-handers Sunday when Mark Buehrle and the Toronto Blue Jays (50-60, 22-32 away) pay a visit to C.J. Wilson and the Los Angeles Angels (51-58, 30-28 home) in the final game of a four-game weekend series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 3:35 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -102.

The Angels have taken the first three games of this series while scoring a total of 22 runs in the three wins with all three games going ‘over’ the total, although we foresee that streak being snapped today. Even with the three wins, the Halos remain 12½ games behind the first place Oakland Athletics while in third place in the American League West, making this a very disappointing season for a team with one of the highest payrolls in all of baseball.

Speaking of disappointments, you may recall that the Blue Jays were the favorites to win the American League East prior to this season, with one of the main reasons being a supposedly improved starting pitching staff. Instead Toronto is in last place and 16 games behind the first place Boston Red Sox and the starting pitchers have an ugly cumulative 5.16 ERA.

However, Buehrle at least has turned his season around rather nicely. Sure, he is still just 7-7 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP overall, but he has now allowed three earned runs or less in four of his last five starts and he has tossed 16 scoreless innings over his last two outings including a Complete Game two-hit shutout over the Houston Astros.

Before scoffing that it was “only the Astros”, consider that Houston has actually hit left-handed pitchers better than the Angels have this year, as Los Angeles is batting just .234 vs. southpaws for the entire season and .227 while averaging only 2.73 runs per nine innings against them over the last 10 games, with the absence of Albert Pujols obviously not helping.

Wilson is having a nice year unlike his Angel teammates as he is 11-6 with a 3.48 ERA, although he does come off a poor outing vs. the Texas Rangers where he was roughed up for six runs on 11 hits in just four innings. He did have five straight Quality Starts prior to that outing though including allowing one earned run or less in four of those starts. Wilson has also done his best pitching right here at home.

Wilson has a 2.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 69.1 home innings while allowing just a .210 batting average, compared to a 4.73 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and a .277 batting average allowed on the road. He is also facing a Toronto lineup batting only .239 vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, and he has allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts vs. the Blue Jays.

Therefore, we expect both veteran lefties to control the opposing lineups and keep this contest ‘under’ on Sunday.

[gameodds]3/240533/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Blue Jays, Angels ‘under’ 8 (-102)