MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, July 21, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 21, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

Runs may be hard to come by Sunday in a battle of southpaws and two offenses that have had trouble with left-handed pitching when Mike Minor and the Atlanta Braves (55-42, 24-27 away) pay a visit to Jose Quintana and the Chicago White Sox (38-56, 20-22 home) in the final game of a weekend three-game series from U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL at 2:10 ET.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +102.

The White Sox snapped a three-game losing streak with a rare offensive explosion in a 10-6 win on Saturday, but Chicago is still dead last in the American League and second to last in the Major Leagues in scoring with 3.82 runs per game, ahead of only the inept Miami Marlins of the National League. That recently prompted management to publicly state that every member of the White Sox is available at the trading deadline except for ace starting pitcher Chris Sale!

The White Sox are last in the American League Central at 13 games behind the front-running Detroit Tigers, and the shame of it all is that the White Sox rotation has some quality arms and those pitchers would have much better records with just decent run support. That includes the Sunday starter Quintana.

The 24-year-old from Columbia is just 4-2 with a rather remarkable 13 no-decisions out of 19 starts despite owning a 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 90 strikeouts against 33 walks in 114 innings. The good news is that Quintana is undefeated in nine starts since losing to the Chicago Cubs on May 27th. The bad news is that he is 1-0 in those nine starts with eight no-decisions despite allowing three earned runs or less in seven of them!

Quintana should continue to pitch well today vs. a Braves’ team that has been like night and day at home and away. In fact, Atlanta has the best home record in baseball at 31-15 but is three games below .500 on the road. The Braves have struggled vs. left-handed pitchers all year regardless of the venue, batting .236 against them overall, and that average has slipped to .222 over the last 10 games.

Of course pitching well again may again not be enough for Quintana to get a decision as the Chicago offense also figures to struggle vs. Minor, who has regained his early season form. Minor is 9-4 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a great ratio of 115 strikeouts vs. 26 walks in 122 innings. He appeared to hit a wall recently where he was very mediocre in four straight starts, but be now enters this game off of two very good outings.

Sure the first of those outings came vs. the punchless Marlins, who Minor held to one run on six hits in 6.1 innings, but he then followed that up by holding the much better Cincinnati Reds to two runs on six hits with seven strikeouts vs. one walk in seven innings in his last start. He should now have continued success vs. a Chicago lineup that is batting .230 vs. left-handers while averaging just 3.17 runs per nine innings against them overall this season.

Furthermore both of these pitchers are making their first start ever vs. their respective opponents today, which is usually to the advantage of the pitcher, so go ‘under’ in the Windy City Sunday.


MLB Pick: Braves, White Sox ‘under’ 8½ (+102)

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