MLB Pick: Total Value Play of the Day Sunday

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, July 7, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.

There could be a nice pitchers’ duel on Sunday Night Baseball this week when the resurgent John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox (54-35, 23-19 away) pay a visit to Jered Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels (42-45, 23-25 home) in the final game of a three-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Spots is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -113.

These teams have split the first two games of this series with the Red Sox taking the series opener rather easily 6-2 on Friday before the Angels staged in improbably comeback to win 9-7 on Saturday, overcoming a 7-3 deficit by scoring four runs in the ninth inning with the tying run scoring on a throwing error before Josh Hamilton won it with a walk-off two-run homer in the 11th.

Despite that loss, the Red Sox are still in first place in the American League East by five games over the second place New York Yankees and by 5½ games over the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles, who are tied for third. One key contributor to Boston’s success this season is Lackey, which has come as a pleasant surprise.

Lackey’s best Major League seasons actually came with the Angels, but he was then oft maligned in two miserable seasons after coming over to the Red Sox before having Tommy John surgery, necessitating him to miss all of last season. However, the now 34-year-old veteran is another example of a pitcher coming back stronger after that surgery, as although he is only 6-5 this year he has a sparkling 2.81 ERA and is in terrific current form.

In fact, Lackey has now allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and that includes allowing two runs or less in each of his last four starts after holding the San Diego Padres to one run on only six hits in eight innings on Tuesday.

The Angels have been a major disappointment this season for a team with one of the largest payrolls in baseball, but they have improved a bit as of late and have closed to within 8½ games of the Oakland Athletics while in third place in the American League West. Weaver’s season has practically mirrored that of his team, as he did not have the best of starts but has looked more like his old self lately.

Weaver has had identically terrific line scores in each of his last two starts allowing exactly one run in seven innings in each one of them, and he allowed a total of 10 hits in those 14 innings with 11 strikeouts, which is an encouraging sign after his strikeout rate had slipped so drastically since the second half of last season.

Thus look for both starters to do their parts in keeping this contest ‘under’ on Sunday night.

[gameodds]3/240325/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

MLB Pick: Red Sox, Angels ‘under’ 8 (-113)